Tide Water Oil Ltd

I was recently looking at an interesting company - Tide Water Oil Ltd (TWOL). 


The major product brands of TWOL are “Veedol” and “Nippon Mitsubishi”.The product range includes automotive lubricants (engine oils, gear oils, transmission oils), industrial lubricants (hydraulic oils, superclean hydraulic oils, gear oils, specialty lubricants) and automotive and industrial greases.

It has also invested in wind power (which a lot of companies have done primarily for tax benefits) but the revenues (2 cr) is negligible in the overall scheme of things. 


What is interesting is that this year the company aquired Veedol International Ltd from BP plc and has gained access to the Veedol brand in over 120 countries of the world. The company has established a subsidiary in Dubai, Veedol International DMCC, to cater to Middle East and North Africa.


Now some numbers:-

P&L Statement	FY12	FY11	FY10	FY9	FY8	FY7
Sales	1004.47	861.42	751.58	610.48	504.83	420.58
Other Income	1.98	4.72	3.51	0.05	4.35	2.39
Op Profit	75.65	99.06	91.66	47.7	35.97	15.8
EBDIT	75.65	103.78	95.17	47.75	40.32	18.19
Interest	1.1	1.89	1.93	3.1	2.59	3.52
Depreciation	9.26	9.71	6.18	3.39	2.5	1.76
PBT	86.13	92.18	87.06	41.26	35.23	12.91
Tax	27.11	30.3	31.54	18.23	12.14	3.98
PAT	57.92	64.16	57.79	27.55	23.18	8.97
EPS	664.86	736.46	663.34	316.23	266.04	102.96

Num of shares	871,200	871,200	871,200	871,200	871,200	871,200
Dividend per share	120	60	50	30	20	15
Dividend Yield	1.78%	0.89%	0.74%	0.45%	0.30%	0.22%

Dupont Analysis
OPM(%)	7.53%	11.50%	12.20%	7.81%	7.13%	3.76%
NPM(%) -- (A)	5.77%	7.45%	7.69%	4.51%	4.59%	2.13%
Asset turnover(avg) -- (B)	2.16	3.29	3.69	3.96	3.81	3.51
RoA(%)	12.45%	24.53%	28.38%	17.88%	17.48%	7.48%
Financial Leverage -- ( C)	1.51	1.00	1.00	1.02	1.05	1.13
RoE(%) -- (=A*B*C)	18.85%	24.53%	28.38%	18.24%	18.30%	8.49%

Key Risks:

• A lot depends on crude prices. 
• The company is owned by Andrew Yule (a PSU),  United India Insurance Company Limited and Life Insurance Corporation of India, so there is possibly some amount of government control or "inefficiency" built in.

Valuation:-

It trades at a PE of roughly 10 times earnings and 1.9 times Price/Book. It has been a regular dividend payer and is likely to continue to do so. Also, the company is available at a much cheaper valuation as compared to its peer - Castrol, although it is much smaller in size.

Catalyst for Valuation Trigger

The Dept of Divestment, Ministry of Finance, is planning to sell Andrew Yule's, United Insurance's and LIC's stake in TWOL to a strategic investor. 

Please refer to http://www.divest.nic.in/PIM_TWOL(19April).asp for further details. 

If the sale goes through, and we don't see any push back from political front (read Mamata Banerjee, as this is a Calcutta headquartered company), then this can act as a trigger for the stock price.

Disclosure:-

Please  consult your financial advisor for your investments. This post is not an investment advice and I do not take any responsibility for your gains or losses!

The real reason behind India's current account deficit

This post is for those of my friends who believe that the stock market is a plaything of the rich and bored and it has no real significance in the real economic progress of India.

The last few months India has seen a free-fall of the rupee with respect to the dollar. From Rs 45 it has gone to Rs 56 in a matter of months. The steep Rs. 7.5 hike in petrol prices has been attributed to this fall in rupee. During this period, crude oil, the other component of petrol price, has come down from $125 to about $105.


So why is the rupee falling like nine pins?
The answer to that question lies in India's current account deficit. To understand in simple terms what the current account deficit means, lets look at its constituents. Roughly, Current A/C (CA) = Balance of Trade (BoT) + FDI flows + FII flows + Remittances. Out of this BoT is  the difference between export and import. 


Whenever there is a change in price, it means there is a change in the demand-supply situation. Similarly, if rupee is falling, it means, dollars are more in demand than Rupee. Exporters sell their products and earn in dollars and they convert them to Rupees. And importers buy  these dollars with Rupees. Currently, importers are buying more dollars than exporters selling rupees. That is one main reason why the rupee keeps falling.


Then why did the Rupee appreciate (go up) during Jan-Feb this year?
Now, we come to the interesting part. India has been historically a trade deficit (negative BoT) country because we have to import oil. We also import a lot of gold and increase in taxes & duties on gold by the FM this year was to in some ways to prevent the outflow of dollars. So, what changed earlier this year? Or what held the rupee to around Rs 45 for such a long time? The joker in the pack is FII inflows. India has been making up for its BoT deficit by primarily FII inflows into the stock market and to some extent through remittances from expats abroad. If you look at remittances, RBI has increased NRI deposit rates to attract this, but without much success. That leaves us with FII inflows. If you track net FII inflows, you will see a marked correlation with the dollar-rupee conversion rates. With the ineffective policy making, GAAR, scams and trouble in the Euro zone, the FIIs are spooked. They are taking away money from the Indian markets and leading the pressure on the Rupee. 


So, to my sceptic friends, the stock market does impact you, whether you invest or not, in more ways than you can imagine!

It is unfortunate that such a large country has to be dependent on FIIs for its economic well-being, but that is the way it is. It is likely to remain that way till we can make such policies which increase our exports.

Stock Holding Period: Don't Follow Buffet Blindly!

A lot of long term investors follow Warren Buffet. Buffet has probably done more to make value investing popular than any other man. His favourite holding period is "forever" and he has been amazingly consistent and held on to his old investments like American Express, Coca-Cola, Washington Post. Most people take his words literally and hold on to their investments for a long long time, often ignoring the deteriorating fundamentals. If you go back 10-20-30 years, you will realize that some of the companies used to rule the markets are no longer there in the top 500 companies list anymore. From the companies that were there in Sensex in 1991, only 9 companies are there till today. That means 2/3 of the companies have been pushed out. Think of companies like Bombay Dyeing, Hindustan Motors, Premier Automobiles, Mukand Iron & Steel and other such names which used to rule the roost back then.

The point I am trying to make is that if you follow Buffet blindly without understanding the context in which the great man makes a statement like holding forever, then you are headed for trouble. Buffet says you need to ensure that the management is a custodian of shareholder wealth, the business has a great moat. Also, Buffet buys when there is great pessimism in the markets regarding the company. He bought Amex and Coke during times when the companies had severe short-term troubles. That was when "normal" retail investors where selling in panic. He bought when he thought there was "value" but the franchises of the businesses were intact.

I think for small investors, a reasonable time frame for holding is one business cycle or approximately 3-4 years or till such time the business fundamentals are intact. Of course, that would mean keeping a constant vigil on the company and ensuring they are doing what they said they would. Buy-and-forget may be injurious to an investor's health.

Incentive Caused Bias and the Indian Politicians

Charlie Munger refers to incentive caused bias as one of the most potent of all biases that mankind is afflicted with. And we see it everywhere around us, all the time. I was thinking of this when I saw one leading mutual fund manager mention on his facebook account on the ills of the RBI not cutting rates quick enough to boost growth. He was peeved that RBI was more concerned about taming inflation than looking at industrial growth. Here, I thought, is a classical case of incentive caused bias. A fund manager, would obviously love industry to grow, so the stock market performs better and he gets a better bonus.


The non-stock-investing common people (I read somewhere that in India about 5% people invest in equities, so that leaves the the majority in this category) want higher bank deposit rates. People with home loans want their home loan rates to go down. People with cars want petrol prices to go down and those with diesel cars want diesel prices to remain where they are.


The politicians are also trapped within their own set of incentive caused biases, primary among them is winning the next election. Financial and economic propriety is irrelevant when it comes up against such a strong bias. So, who gives a damn about the fiscal deficit or the trade deficit! Most people in India wouldn't even know what these terms mean or what impact they have on their lives.


Every subsidy that the government doles out has a set of people who have very strong incentives in continuing with them, so it becomes very difficult to break the setup. As the French have shown us recently, no one likes austerity for the long-term greater good. The hell with good economics as long as we can live well now. That has been the downfall of all (atleast nearly all) great civilizations before ours. It will be interesting to see, if it is the same for us!


The only solution to this is to align long term interests of the nation to those of the elected politicians. For example, factors like reduction in absolute poverty levels (the threshold is immaterial - whether its Rs 28 per day or Rs 40 per day it does not really matter, as long as it is fixed and their is a steady decline in number  of people below it), increase in education levels at all levels (not only primary, but also secondary, college, professional and technical), healthcare availability, access to clean potable water, access to roads, availability of 24x7 electricity and other such critical parameters. If the politicians cannot deliver, then all the MPs will be debarred from contesting elections for the next 10 years. Then we shall see real progress as the ministers and all the opposition MPs will have incentives in ensuring that the country makes actual progress!


P.S. I know this will never happen and we will continue to perform pathetically in the future, just as we did in the past! But, no harm in dreaming, is there!

GuruSpeak: Charlie Munger speaks to Becky Quick of CNBC

Charlie Munger speaks to Becky Quick of CNBC.

There's Always Something To Do - (Peter Cundill) written by Christopher Risso-Gill: Part II

In Part I, I covered some of the excerpts from the life and investment approach of Peter Cundill. Here are some more.



Typical starting point for investigating stocks for investing in Cundill Value Fund:-

• Share price less than book value. Preferably, it will be less than net working capital less long term debt.
• The price must be less than half of the former high and preferably at or near its all time low.
• PE must be less than 10 or inverse of the long term bond rate, whichever is less.
• Company must be profitable. Preferably it would have increased its earnings for the past 5 years and there would be no losses in that period.
• Company must be paying dividends. Preferably, the dividends should be increasing and have been paid for some time.
• Long term debt and bank debt (including off-balance sheet financing) must be judiciously employed. There must be room to expand the debt position if required.

Once the analysis is complete and you have reached the firm conviction that an investment is right you should not try to be too clever about the purchase price. If you have to take a loss - don't dither. Learn the lessons and then forget about it..


Firstly, very few people really do their homework properly, so now I check for myself. Secondly, if you have the confidence in your own work, you have to take the initiative without waiting around for someone else to take the first plunge.


The timing difficulty in selling does not lie in not knowing when the trading discount to intrinsic value has been eliminated, but in judging by how much it is likely to be surpassed. The ultimate skill in this business is in knowing when to make the judgment call to let profits run.


Selling "formula" used in the initial years of the Cundill Value Fund:-
the fund would automatically sell half of any given position when it has doubled, in effect thereby down the cost of the remainder to zero with the fund manager then left with the discretion as to when to sell the balance.


The most important attribute for success in value investing is patience, patience and more patience. The majority of investors do not possess this characteristic. 

There's Always Something To Do - (Peter Cundill) written by Christopher Risso-Gill: Part I

I am currently reading There's Always Something To Do written by Christopher Risso-Gill. It is written on the life and value investment approach of the famous Peter Cundill, the founder of the Cundill Value Fund. Peter Cundill derived his approach from Graham & Dodd and included learnings from his informal mentor, Sir John Templeton and was one of the few extremely successful international investors.


What I am really loving about this book is that its taken from the copious journals maintained by Peter Cundill, so provides a first hand account of the thought process that an investor goes through. Typically, all other books by fund managers are written post-facto and are guilty, to some extent atleast, of hindsight bias. Here, the I could feel the dilemma that Cundill goes through at various points in his investing journey which I can related to very closely.


Here are some excerpts from the book:-

What I am beginning to perceive is that investors tend to follow trends and fashion rather than taking the trouble to look for value. This must offer opportunity for the professional investment manager, as a result of the short term mispricing of securities.

I think intelligent forecasting (company revenues, earnings, etc.) should not seek to predict what will happen in the future. its purpose ought to be to illuminate the road, to point out obstacles and potential pitfalls and so assist management to tailor events and to bend them in a desired direction. 

I believe that there is probably one opportunity in every man's life which demands his knowledge, his guts, his self-esteem and his judgment. If he seizes it with both hands and it is successful, he joins the first rank, if not he remains a mortal with feet of clay.

Some insights near the beginning of his career:

• Management's ability to predict earnings is universally poor

• It is the strategic modelling behind the portfolio that matters most.

• One needs to develop a sense of spaced maturities in a common stock portfolio in a way that is comparable to a bond portfolio.

• In a macro sense it may be more useful to spend time analysing industries instead of national or international economies.

I will follow up on more excerpts as I continue reading. So, stay tuned.

Guru Speak: Tenets for Value Investing by James Montier

I am just beginning to read James Montier's extremely acclaimed book Value Investing: Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment, so thought would share some of his thoughts that I had read in 2010. Important to note that how he has adapted his views on investing after 2008.


Tenet I : Value, Value, Value - Value investing is the only safety first approach I have come across.By puttig the margin of safety concept at the heart of the process, the value approach minimizes the risk of overpaying for the hope of growth.


Tenet II : Be Contrarion - Sir John Templeton once said that "It is impossible to produce superior performance unless you do something different from the majority".


Tenet III : Be Patient - Patience is integral to value approach on many levels, for waiting for the fat pitch, to dealing with the value manager's curse of being too early.


Tenet IV : Be Unconstrained - While pigeon-holing and labelling are fashionable, I am far from convinced that they aid investment. Surely, I should be free to exploit value opportunities wherever they may occur.


Tenet V : Don't Forecast - We have to find a better way of investing than relying upon our seriously flawed ability to soothsay.


Tenet VI : Cycles Matter - As Howard Marks puts it, we can't predict but we can prepare. An awareness of the economic, credit and sentiment cycles can help with investment.


Tenet VII : History Matters - The four most dangerous words in investing are "This time its different". A knowledge of history and context can help avoid blunders of the past.


Tenet VIII : Be Skeptical - One of my heroes said "Blind faith in anything will get you killed". Learning to question what you are told and developing critical thinking skills are vital to long-term success and survival.


Tenet IX : Be top-down and bottom-up - One of the key lessons from the last year (2008) is that both top-down and bottom-up viewpoints matter. Neither has a monopoly on insight.

Guru Speak: Lessons from Bruce Berkowitz

Here is a list (highlights are from me) from Bruce Berkowitz, a very prominent value investor and owner of Fairholme Capital and judged as the best fund manager of the decade in 2010 by Morningstar.

• You always have to have cash, especially when no one else has it. 
• No free lunch- it’s not free, or it’s not lunch.
• You can’t change people! You can change yourself, but not others.
• You only see reality under extreme stress- you want to get to know someone, you need to see them under extreme stress.
• Volatility is not risk!
• Always assume you will have bad luck.
• Few variables to win. Once you have to think about more than 3 variables, your odds of winning are low.
• If you have to use more than 6th grade math, you’re in trouble.

Dark clouds on the economic horizon

Let me make a confession. The last few years I have not read a single pre-budget article nor watched any pre-budget shows on TV. I have shied away from these as I have seen that the budget has been hyped up by the TRP/ratings hungry media into something which it is not. So, inevitably the budget disappoints and after a couple of days people forget about it completely.

This time looking at the macro economic scenario after the budget, I see two dark clouds on the horizon. The first is the huge market borrowing planned by the central government to the tune of 5.8 lakh crore. The second is the rupee depreciation.

The net impact of the huge government borrowing would mean that the interest rate is unlikely to come down in the near term. Even if it does, it will not be more than 0.5% to maximum of 1.0%. It will also make corporate borrowing more difficult and may push more and more companies towards ECB (external commercial borrowing). Both of this is likely to be a major dampener for corporate earnings growth.

FII net inflows into India in 2012 has been $7.16 billion as per SEBI. To put that in perspective, the FII net outflow in 2011 was $358 million. However, in the euphoria of such large doses of FII liquidity, an important point is being missed. The fact is that even with this huge inflow, the rupee has not appreciated at all. In fact, it continues to hover around the Rs 50 mark with respect to the US dollar. This means if the FII inflows weaken, the rupee can take another dive towards the 55-57 to the dollar mark.

Macro economic forecasting is a fool's endeavour and I engage only to amuse myself :-) Sometimes, though it can give some insights into the headwinds and tailwinds of the economy. At this time, I am a little bit more skeptical than six months back on the immediate economic future. I think I will have to relook at those stocks which have high FCCB/ECB borrowings and maybe shed some weight there. Good buying opportunities may be there in export oriented companies.

Portfolio Query: What to do with my portfolio?

A reader sent a query on an older post "My Rules for Investing":

Great Post!!.

A generic query. Even after repeated warnings a lot of us have bought a few stocks based on TV channel/CNBC/Guru's tips etc..which results in
a) Too many stocks in portfolio around 35
b) Some are down around 25% & unfortunately i have no investment thesis & hence no plan on what to do with them.

What can be plan of action here, should i sell them at a loss, build a thesis and then accordingly hold or sell the stock or finally keep them in cold storage and hope that after 3 years they have appreciated :) 

Here is my response. I am putting it up here so that others who may have a similar predicament, can benefit and if anyone has a better idea, can share it with me :-)

---

Firstly, stop listening to all "gurus" on TV for your financial health :-) If they knew which stock would do well, they would reverse mortgage their houses and buy those stocks :-)

For your current holdings, the only option you have is to build conviction. Here is a quick and dirty process that you can follow:-

1. Take one or two stocks a day and go through their financial numbers and basic business (what it does)
2. Check on debt levels
3. Check if company pays regular dividends
4. Check if sales and profits are either constant or growing over the last 5 years (atleast) - the growth need not be every year but on a average 3 out of 5 years there should be reasonable growth.
5. Check the RoE & ROCE. Take a real hard look if they are below 15%
6. Check if there is +ve operational cash flow for atleast last 3 out of 5 years

If you do this, it wont take more than 30-60 mins each and you will get a much better idea of each company. Do this for every company in your portfolio. If you find ones which you do not understand or the numbers don't look good at all, just go ahead and sell. Those where you are not sure, dig a bit deeper.
Also, remember once you have a set of companies that you like and understand, it may be a better bet to keep buying into those than always looking for stocks not in your portfolio.

"I measure any new purchase against what I like least in portfolio now and unless it meets the  test, I'll just buy more of something in the portfolio." -- Warren Buffet

Guru Speak: Warren Buffet's 3 hour talk on CNBC

CNBC Transcript Ask Warren Buffett February 27 2012

Why it is nearly impossible to be as good as Warren Buffet

 I got this speech by Mark Sellers on the internet. Absolutely fabulous and a must-read.Sellers 24102004

Concentration or diversification - For a midcap or smallcap portfolio

I was talking to a friend. Like me he invests typically in midcap and smallcap stocks. The interesting fact he mentioned was that invests only in 4-5 stocks at a time. That is, he has about 20-25% in each stock of his portfolio. His argument was that Buffet and Munger continue to advocate high concentration in stocks and also followed their own advice and had a large concentrated portfolio. I think he is taking on unnecessary wipeout risk.

My friend is like me, a purely small retail investor and makes investment decisions based on publicly available information with no recourse to management. I agree that Buffet and Munger advice a concentrated portfolio, but only if you understand the businesses very well. For a purely external investor it is very difficult to understand a small or mid sized business so well that they can bet a very large portion of their networth on it. Also, it is important to understand that for mid and small cap investing it is likely that some of your picks will go wrong. And when it happens stock prices can go down 80-90%. It is important to diversify adequately to ensure that you don't get wiped out when, inevitably, some of your picks go bad. I think it is important to have around 10-15 stocks in your portfolio and preferably not all from the same industry sector!

Walter Schloss passes away: His learnings remain

Superinvestor Walter Schloss passed away earlier this week. He was 95. From 1955 to 2002, by Schloss’s estimate, his investments returned 16 percent annually after fees, compared with 10 percent for the S&P 500.

Here are the golden rules as espoused by him.

1. Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value

2. Try to establish the value of the company. Remember that a share of stock represents a part of a business and is not just a piece of paper.

3. Use book value as a starting point to try and establish the value of the enterprise. Be sure that debt does not equal 100% of the equity. (Capital and surplus for the common stock).

4. Have patience. Stocks don’t go up immediately.

5. Don’t buy on tips or for a quick move. Let the professionals do that, if they can. Don’t sell on bad news.

6. Don’t be afraid to be a loner but be sure that you are correct in your judgment. You can’t be 100% certain but try to look for the weaknesses in your thinking. Buy on a scale down and sell on a scale up.

7. Have the courage of your convictions once you have made a decision.

8. Have a philosophy of investment and try to follow it. The above is a way that I’ve found successful.

9. Don’t be in too much of a hurry to sell. If the stock reaches a price that you think is a fair one, then you can sell but often because a stock goes up say 50%, people say sell it and button up your profit. Before selling try to re-evaluate the company again and see where the stock sells in relation to its book value. Be aware of the level of the stock market. Are yields low and P-E rations high. If the stock market historically high. Are people very optimistic etc?

10. When buying a stock, I find it helpful to buy near the low of the past few years. A stock may go as high as 125 and then decline to 60 and you think it attractive. 3 yeas before the stock sold at 20 which shows that there is some vulnerability in it.

11. Try to buy assets at a discount than to buy earnings. Earning can change dramatically in a short time. Usually assets change slowly. One has to know much more about a company if one buys earnings.

12. Listen to suggestions from people you respect. This doesn’t mean you have to accept them. Remember it’s your money and generally it is harder to keep money than to make it. Once you lose a lot of money, it is hard to make it back.

13. Try not to let your emotions affect your judgment. Fear and greed are probably the worst emotions to have in connection with purchase and sale of stocks.

14. Remember the work compounding. For example, if you can make 12% a year and reinvest the money back, you will double your money in 6 yrs, taxes excluded. Remember the rule of 72. Your rate of return into 72 will tell you the number of years to double your money.

15. Prefer stock over bonds. Bonds will limit your gains and inflation will reduce your purchasing power.

16. Be careful of leverage. It can go against you. 

Model Thinking: Online Course

“The better decision maker has at his/her disposal repertoires of possible actions; checklists of things to think about before he acts; and he has mechanisms in his mind to evoke these, and bring these to his conscious attention when the situations for decision arise.” (Herbert Simon, Nobel Laureate)


I recently came across an online class for Model Thinking.  I have started on it and it is very good. You can sign up for the class at the following website: http://www.modelthinking-class.org/

The class will last for ten weeks ending the last week of April. It will be covering two topics per week. Each topic will consist of a series of lectures with some embedded questions to make sure we are understanding the material as well as required and supplementary readings. Every week, starting in week two there will be a quiz. The quiz questions will vary in difficulty from basic competency questions to more challenging numerical calculations.

As you are probably aware, model thinking is critical to a serious investor's success. Without having the right (and enough number of) models in your head, it is not possible to analyze different businesses.

Need for mental models from Charlie Munger:
What is elementary, worldly wisdom? Well, the first rule is that you can't really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang 'em back. If the facts don't hang together on a latticework of theory, you don't have them in a usable form. 

You've got to have models in your head. And you've got to array your experience—both vicarious and direct—on this latticework of models. You may have noticed students who just try to remember and pound back what is remembered. Well, they fail in school and in life. You've got to hang experience on a latticework of models in your head.

What are the models? Well, the first rule is that you've got to have multiple models—because if you just have one or two that you're using, the nature of human psychology is such that you'll torture reality so that it fits your models, or at least you'll think it does. You become the equivalent of a chiropractor who, of course, is the great boob in medicine.

Investing Mistakes

This post is written as a comment to the excellent post available here:- http://kiraninvestsandlearns.wordpress.com/2012/02/20/investing-mistake-and-a-list-of-value-investors/

Let me add a few points on this particular example, as I had a very very similar experience with PI. I studied PI, liked what I saw and got it. I followed it for a while and after this quarters results, I got really really bugged and sold nearly 80-90% of my holding (still holding a small fraction to keep it on my radar).

Your points about being able to value a company or business is critical to an investors success. That is one reaso why Buffet keeps harping on the "circle of competence". Pi, as a business model, is really good. It is in 2 distinctly growing markets which has a significant barrier to entry. The wildcard on this one is that the management seems to lack either integrity or brains - both of which are detrimental to a minority investor's wealth!!

Let me give two more examples from my investments, separated by 10 years!

Example 1 - In 2000, I bought Dr.Morepen (now Morepen Lab) at about Rs 100 (or thereabouts, cant remember exactly). After a few quarters, I figured that the company's powerpoint presentations and delivered results were poles apart and got rid of the stock at a small loss. I think I lost 2-3Rs per share. I checked the price today and it is Rs 3.90, so I saved about 90% capital loss in a 10 year period, in addition to the opportunity cost.

Example 2- Last year a fellow investor gave a very strong suggestion to buy Andhra Sugar. I figured that the business may do well, but was beyond my circle of competence as I had no idea what I had to do to track caustic soda and sugar prices.

It is absolutely critical to have an investment framework that one stocks to. Keep it written down so that you can go through it before you click the Buy button. Also, in my opinion, it is critical to keep a margin of error. Sir John Templeton had approximately 6 out of 10 profitable investments, and he is in the Hall of Fame of investors! So, we should be planning for a poorer average.

I am a mid and small cap investor and for someone like me, I know I will make my share of mistakes. So, what I try to relentlessly focus on is make my winners big and cut out my mistakes as quickly and ruthlessly as possible.