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Showing posts with label stock market investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market investing. Show all posts

Thursday, 29 November 2018

Weekly Reading - Some Interesting Stuff

A beautiful glimpse into the Bombay Plan, a powerful planning document created by the most powerful businessmen and technocrats of India in 1944, and what it wanted to achieve.
The Bombay Plan’s targets were overwhelmingly more ambitious than anything the Planning Commission of the government of India ever attempted. It had envisaged the doubling of per capita income over fifteen years and proposed appropriate sources of finance for that ambitious target. 

Brian Acton, the founder of WhatsApp, walked away from $850m when he resigned and moved out of Facebook. He speaks at length about that and other aspects. Paints a very poor picture of Facebook as a company. Fascinating read.

Google employees have renewed their public protests against “Project Dragonfly,” a censored and surveillance-enabling search app that Google is reportedly building for the Chinese market.  oogle has said little about Dragonfly, but numerous reports have detailed its planned features, which reportedly range from blocking specific keywords like “human rights” to linking searches with users’ phone numbers.

Verily Life Sciences, a research organisation run by Alphabet, Google's parent company, plans to infect thousands of male Aedes aegypti mosquitoes with Wolbachia, a common bacterium, and release them out in the open. This breed of genetically altered male mosquitoes, which don't bite humans, would then mate with the females, and pass on Wolbachia. Now, if the female mosquitoes lay eggs, those eggs will not hatch!

Food-delivery sites can, in the long run, switch customer loyalty from restaurants to the platform itself. A Swiggy user, for instance, may go for the cheapest or closest option rather than picking a restaurant deliberately. “Once the platforms have enough clout, they can dictate prices or even set up their own kitchens".

This is something which is very concerning and scary for the country, and unfortunately is not getting the importance it deserves from both policymakers and the media.
Employability across education domains are less than 50% across board.



https://qz.com/india/1473437/indian-mba-graduates-get-less-employable-engineers-improving/

Monday, 22 September 2014

Don't Build Noah's Ark

We have been witnessing a very strong market sentiment that started with the run up to the general elections and then continued with the once-in-thirty-years win of a single majority by any political party in India. With a pro-reform mindset, the BJP government led by Narendra Modi has promised "acche din" to the people.

I have been bullish on the Indian market since last year and believe that this is just the beginning of a bull market in India. And it has a long way to go. I hear a lot of market players talking about steep corrections in the near future. As long as there is such healthy scepticism in the market, there is unlikely to be any major reversal. Also, intermediate corrections are healthy in a bull market and usually gives the opportunity to investors to get into good stocks of their choice.

A bull-market brings with its in-built  challenges for investors. Sell side analysts and brokerages start aggressively pushing their stock recommendations. Investors get such "multibagger ideas" daily in the inbox, whatsapp, facebook and other such groups & forums. Suddenly, "investment experts" come out of the woodwork and start making recommendations and touting up their "fantastic past records". And people get lured by the easy gains in the market and start "collecting" stocks. Their portfolio starts looking like what I call the Noah's Ark - having two of everything!! Stop. Think. And then only buy those companies which as an investor you are comfortable with; those stocks which are within your circle of competence.

And always remember sometimes the existing stocks in your portfolio and are as good (if not better) than the latest hot stock you are pursuing. So, focus on businesses, moderate return expectations (most errors occur when people try to chase incrementally higher returns) and cut out the noise.

Monday, 18 March 2013

Sensex Rolling Retuns - Some observations

I was doing some data analysis on Sensex data from BSE. I have taken the Sensex value for March end (or very close to it) for every year since Sensex was constituted in 1979. It put my mind to rest on the need to keep focussed on the long term and ignore short term market gyrations.

Some interesting observations:-
  1. The worst crash in Sensex came not in 2008 but in 1993 courtesy Harshad Mehta. Down 45% in 1993 vs 35% in 2009.
  2. The highest return for a year has been 252% in 1992!!! Again, courtesy Harshad bhai. The man giveth and he taketh away!!!
  3. So, between 1992 & 1993, investors actually did not lose a lot money if they had stayed invested. Sensex was down 10% over the 2 year period, not a catastrophe.
  4. Negative returns for over rolling 5 years starts to become lower and lower and by 12 years, it becomes zero. i.e, there has been no case historically, where an investor has lost money by being invested for 12 years or more.
  5. For a period of 3 years or more, the median return is relatively good - 14% or more.


Summary of Observations

Returns (%)
Date
Sensex
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
7 Years
10 Years
12 Years
15 Years
Apr-79
124







Apr-80
129
3.92






Apr-81
173
34.47






Apr-82
221
27.34
21.18





Apr-83
213
-3.76
18.12





Apr-84
247
16.06
12.46
14.73




Apr-85
353
43.05
16.91
22.30




Apr-86
582
64.91
39.90
27.40
24.70



Apr-87
524
-9.92
28.56
18.87
22.18



Mar-88
398
-24.03
4.11
13.38
12.61



Apr-89
724
81.71
7.53
24.01
18.48
19.28


Apr-90
783
8.16
14.30
17.27
20.47
19.76


Apr-91
1203
53.63
44.54
15.62
25.39
21.37
20.83

Apr-92
4238
252.34
80.24
51.88
42.63
34.37
33.78

Apr-93
2311
-45.46
43.45
42.14
21.77
26.95
24.08

Mar-94
3779
63.49
46.46
39.17
32.60
31.37
26.70
25.57
Apr-95
3317
-12.23
-7.85
33.47
35.36
25.11
25.73
24.17
Apr-96
3418
3.04
13.92
23.23
24.82
19.36
24.49
21.98
Apr-97
3558
4.10
-1.99
-3.44
24.14
21.10
21.23
20.35
Apr-98
4072
14.46
7.08
11.99
19.03
26.17
17.60
21.75
Apr-99
3686
-9.47
2.55
-0.50
-1.97
17.68
17.65
19.75
Apr-00
5053
37.07
12.41
8.79
11.82
20.50
23.58
19.41
Apr-01
3605
-28.66
-3.98
1.07
-0.67
11.60
14.32
12.92
Apr-02
3463
-3.94
-2.06
-0.54
0.62
-2.00
13.19
13.41
Apr-03
3151
-9.00
-14.56
-5.00
-1.15
3.15
8.36
14.78
Apr-04
5788
83.68
17.10
9.44
7.20
4.36
2.63
14.87
Apr-05
6605
14.11
24.02
5.50
7.15
7.13
9.14
15.28
Apr-06
11564
75.08
54.25
26.25
17.74
12.96
9.77
16.29
Apr-07
12625
9.17
29.69
29.52
13.98
13.50
11.78
7.55
Apr-08
15833
25.41
33.83
38.11
23.54
14.54
13.63
13.69
Apr-09
10349
-34.64
-3.63
12.32
16.93
10.87
9.31
6.95
Apr-10
17693
70.96
11.91
21.78
27.95
13.35
13.02
11.81
Apr-11
19420
9.77
7.05
10.92
18.88
18.34
14.85
12.28
Apr-12
17597
-9.39
19.36
6.87
15.03
17.65
10.96
11.25
Mar-13
19570
11.21
3.42
4.33
7.81
20.04
15.14
11.03
Yearly Rolling Returns

34
32
30
28
25
23
20
Negative Returns

11
6
4
3
1
0
0


Summary since 03 Apr 1979


1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
7 Years
10 Years
12 Years
15 Years

Yearly Rolling Return Observations
34
32
30
28
25
23
20

Negative Return Observations
11
6
4
3
1
0
0

Loss Probability (%)
32
19
13
11
4
NIL
NIL

Median Return (%)
10
14
15
19
18
15
15

Average Return (%)
24
18
17
17
17
17
16

Max Return (%)
252
80
52
43
34
34
26

Minimum Return (%)
-45
-15
-5
-2
-2
3
7

Standard Deviation (%)
53
20
14
11
9
7
5