JK Lakshmi Cement - It's time may have come!

I have had JK Lakshmi Cement in my portfolio for a while. My logic of buying a cement stock which is a pure commodity and something I usually avoid, is because I keep an eye out on cement dispatches and have made a fair deal in the previous cycle on Gujarat Ambuja and India Cement stocks. My experience has been that if you can buy into cement companies when they are really really cheap and no one fancies them, you can make a 5-10 bagger in a 3-4 year cycle.

With this in mind, I had bought in JK Lakshmi Cement, as it was one of the most attractively priced, that I found. The company has announced its Q3 results and it has been excellent. Net sales has increased from 315 cr to 440 cr (39.5% growth). Net profit has increased from 4.6 cr to 49.2 cr (970.4% growth). EPS has increased from 0.4 cr to 4 cr (900% growth). Dispatches have had a healthy 12.8% yoy growth to 1.22mn tonnes and strong realization growth of 26.3% yoy to Rs. 3,359/tonne.

The management has announced an equity share buyback up to an amount of Rs 97.5cr at a maximum price of  Rs 70 per share. Assuming  that entire buyback happens at  the price range of Rs 65-70,  the paid-up equity will  reduce by somewhere around 7-8%. Currently, the stock is available at a P/B of 0.7 and EV/ton of $54 both of which are at a discount to its peers.


The stock has moved up sharply in the last few weeks,from a low of 40 in the end of Dec'11 to its current price of nearly 62. The stock is still available at a reasonably cheap price and can move up significantly from here in the next 1 year. I would not be surprised if I see a triple digit price in the next 6 months.

Note: I am invested in JK Lakshmi Cement. Please take my views as biased. Consult with your financial adviser before investing.

Beware the ides of March

It's popular to do what's popular, but its not profitable to do whats popular - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

The current rise in the market has been dramatic and a lot of people have made significant money in the last month. FIIs have pumped in dollars and that has helped both the equity markets and rupee-dollar conversion ratio.

Most people have turned bullish and are trying to follow the herd and buying stocks. As history has repeatedly showed, retail investors usually get in at the wrong time in a market rally. It is important to ignore the liquidity and be cognizant of the event risks that are coming up.

March 16th Pranab Mukherjee is going to present the Union Budget. UP elections results should be also available at that time. There will be more news flow with respect to Greece's debt situation.

It is probably the time to be more cautious than adventurous. If you have spare cash, get into debt funds or buy into good fundamentally strong companies. Increase your time horizon of holding your stocks - buy to hold for the next 2-3 years.

I am looking at a couple of companies at this time and will post details about them once I complete my study.

Counter-thought - A process

Most of us do not think of how or why our investments can fail. While buying, we either look at the fundamentals or consider technical charts or do a mix of both and then buy. However, we are sometimes fooled as something that we may not have considered in our analysis takes place and our investment goes down in value. For this it is critical to have, what I term, as Counter-thought.

In counter-thought, you do a sort of crystal ball gazing and think that you are one year from now and your investment has turned you a loss. Now looking back you have to point out the reasons why it did not work out as you had planned or hoped it would. Looked at it from this perspective, it is much easier to figure out the major risks that can result in a loss. For example, if you are buying a company based on its ability to rent out its real estate (e.g. Nesco), then one loss-case can be a natural disaster like earthquake/flood/fire which destroys the primary asset. Another one can be a overall slump in industrial and trade fairs and reduction of demand. If you sit down with a pen & paper (notepad on a computer would do just fine as well), then you can chalk out multiple similar scenarios.

Once you have these items in your investment risk list, you can categorize them based on probability of occurrence and its possible impact. Again, taking the same example, a natural calamity at the primary convention center for Nesco is a very remote probability event but with extremely high impact (i.e. its effect is potentially catastrophic for the company).

So, before you put in your money in a stock next time, do spend a bit of time on counter-thought.

Debts Funds: Their time has come

The expectation that interest rates in India will stabilize and then subside over the first half of calendar year 2012, has given rise to a good opportunity for risk averse investors to invest in debt funds. Not only risk averse investors, but also people who are usually fully invested in equities, would do well to put some of their money in them.


Historical Returns
In the past,October 2008 to January 2009, when RBI cut the Repo rate by 3.5% from 9% to 5.5% with WPI inflation trending down from 11% to 1%. The Gilt-Medium and Long Term category funds appreciated to 19% compounded return while Income Category increased by 11%.


My Personal Bets
My recent additions in this category are Pru ICICI Gilt Fund and Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund (G) in these two categories. I expect the gilt fund to do better than the income one, and so have a 60-40 split between them. Return expectation is about 12-14% in a year's time.

Motilal Oswal Wealth Creation Study: Panel Discussion

Here are the 2 videos of the panel discussion at the Motilal Oswal Wealth Creation Study conference. 


Panelists are Ramesh Damani (host), Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Madhu Kela and Raamdeo Agarwal

Portfolio Performance - 2011

2011 was an interesting and eventful year (probably like any other). For the Indian equity markets, it was full of fears that was imported from first US and then Europe. This year started with the Sensex at 20509 and Nifty at 6134. It closed the year at 15455 and 4624 respectively. This amounted to a decline of 24.6% on the Sensex. Along with the general market, my portfolio also fell. For the whole year, the portfolio was down 15.19%. That is a substantial percentage. The fall was especially vicious during the last couple of months. When I look back, the portfolio was generating positive returns till the end of October and then fell off sharply. This is because the only stocks I hold are mid and small caps and they have been beaten down in the current environment of extreme uncertainty with respect to the currency depreciation and Eurozone problems.


Although, I do not expect a great turn around in 2012, I would continue to deploy most of my savings to stocks. This is primarily because I am more convinced about the future of businesses to generate above inflation returns than any other form of investment I am aware of. With the market fall, stocks (specially the small and mid-cap variety) are available at good valuations for someone with a reasonably long time horizon. I am not very concerned about short term currency fluctuations and other issues. I don't expect basic business demand & supply to alter based on macro economic concerns, and good and resilient businesses should be able to weather the storm.

Serial #	Name of Company	% of Portfolio (Dec'11)	% of Portfolio (Jan'11)	Since Jan'11	Comments
1	Astral Poly	4.94%	0.00%	New	Accumulate
2	Balaji Amines	5.19%	8.34%	Down	Hold
3	Balkrishna Industries	4.49%	3.59%	Down	Accumulate
4	Cravatex	4.22%	0.00%	New	Hold
5	Elecon Engg	2.43%	0.00%	New	Accumulate
6	GEI Industrial	3.77%	0.00%	New	Accumulate
	Hira Ferro	0	5.12%	Sold
	Indag Rubber	0	0.95%	Sold
7	JK Lakshmi Cement	2.38%	3.32%	Down	Accumulate very slowly
8	Lloyd Electric	1.67%	5.03%	Down	Hold
9	Manjushree Tech	3.70%	0.00%	New	Hold
10	Mayur Uniquoters	10.44%	5.29%	Up	Accumulate aggressively on every dip
11	Opto Circuits	6.05%	8.32%	Down	Hold
12	PI Industries	6.51%	0.00%	New	Accumulate
	Pidilite	0	0.00%	Sold
13	Poly Medicure	1.34%	0.00%	New	Hold
	RSWM	0	6.68%	Sold
14	Shriram TransFi	7.37%	10.90%	Down	Accumulate aggresively on every dip
15	Sintex India	4.02%	9.97%	Down	Accumulate aggresively on every dip
16	Supreme Ind	16.86%	20.65%	Down	Hold
	Supreme Infra	0	3.64%	Sold
17	Titan Industries	4.36%	0.00%	New	Accumulate very slowly
18	Yes Bank	6.86%	5.88%	Up	Accumulate
19	Cash	3.21%	0.09%	Up
20	Nifty Put Option	0.19%	0.00%	New