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Friday, 22 March 2013

A poem for value investors!!

For a change, I am posting a poem that was written by Rudyard Kipling in 1895. It is for all and not just value investors, but it reflects stoicism at its best. One of my favourite poems in the English language :-)



If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too:
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise;

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim,
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same:
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools;

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss:
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much:
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a man, my son! 

Thursday, 21 March 2013

Merck - Stable Pharma Major

I have been looking at some Pharma names recently. Let me put a disclaimer upfront. I am not very good at analyzing pharma companies. I am not able to differentiate between most of the companies who sell non-patented generic drugs in India.

Having said that, the numbers for Merck looked good. Below is a glimpse.

Market Cap: Rs. 1050 Cr
Current Price: Rs. 630.00
Book Value: Rs. 291.36
Stock P/E: 13.34
Debt to equity: 0.00
Price to book value: 2.16
Promoter Holding: 51.8%
  • Merck Limited was set up in India as Merck’s first Asian subsidiary in 1967. The Company operates both its pharmaceuticals & chemicals businesses in the country.
  • Dec'13 (Q4) quarter net profits & EPS have gone up by 58%; Revenues are up 31.8%
  • FY12 (year ending Dec) EPS is 47.2 vs 38.4 in Fy11 (Gain of 23%)

Problem Areas
  • Large part of the company's revenues comes from areas under govt price control, ability to pass on input cost escalations is not there. This can severely impact margins.
  • Company has a performance materials division which makes pigments and cosmetic actives, neither of which is core to the company's business.

Valuation
The company is likely to post a FY13 (Dec) EPS of close to 53-54. At 15 times, the stock can trade at around 800 levels, which is about 25% from current levels. So, not a screaming buy, but something worth looking into for stability and moderate returns over the short term.

Disclosure: I am not invested in Merck at this time. I am not yet decided whether to invest or not. Please do your own due diligence before investing.

Monday, 18 March 2013

Guru Speak: Charlie Munger


Sensex Rolling Retuns - Some observations

I was doing some data analysis on Sensex data from BSE. I have taken the Sensex value for March end (or very close to it) for every year since Sensex was constituted in 1979. It put my mind to rest on the need to keep focussed on the long term and ignore short term market gyrations.

Some interesting observations:-
  1. The worst crash in Sensex came not in 2008 but in 1993 courtesy Harshad Mehta. Down 45% in 1993 vs 35% in 2009.
  2. The highest return for a year has been 252% in 1992!!! Again, courtesy Harshad bhai. The man giveth and he taketh away!!!
  3. So, between 1992 & 1993, investors actually did not lose a lot money if they had stayed invested. Sensex was down 10% over the 2 year period, not a catastrophe.
  4. Negative returns for over rolling 5 years starts to become lower and lower and by 12 years, it becomes zero. i.e, there has been no case historically, where an investor has lost money by being invested for 12 years or more.
  5. For a period of 3 years or more, the median return is relatively good - 14% or more.


Summary of Observations

Returns (%)
Date
Sensex
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
7 Years
10 Years
12 Years
15 Years
Apr-79
124







Apr-80
129
3.92






Apr-81
173
34.47






Apr-82
221
27.34
21.18





Apr-83
213
-3.76
18.12





Apr-84
247
16.06
12.46
14.73




Apr-85
353
43.05
16.91
22.30




Apr-86
582
64.91
39.90
27.40
24.70



Apr-87
524
-9.92
28.56
18.87
22.18



Mar-88
398
-24.03
4.11
13.38
12.61



Apr-89
724
81.71
7.53
24.01
18.48
19.28


Apr-90
783
8.16
14.30
17.27
20.47
19.76


Apr-91
1203
53.63
44.54
15.62
25.39
21.37
20.83

Apr-92
4238
252.34
80.24
51.88
42.63
34.37
33.78

Apr-93
2311
-45.46
43.45
42.14
21.77
26.95
24.08

Mar-94
3779
63.49
46.46
39.17
32.60
31.37
26.70
25.57
Apr-95
3317
-12.23
-7.85
33.47
35.36
25.11
25.73
24.17
Apr-96
3418
3.04
13.92
23.23
24.82
19.36
24.49
21.98
Apr-97
3558
4.10
-1.99
-3.44
24.14
21.10
21.23
20.35
Apr-98
4072
14.46
7.08
11.99
19.03
26.17
17.60
21.75
Apr-99
3686
-9.47
2.55
-0.50
-1.97
17.68
17.65
19.75
Apr-00
5053
37.07
12.41
8.79
11.82
20.50
23.58
19.41
Apr-01
3605
-28.66
-3.98
1.07
-0.67
11.60
14.32
12.92
Apr-02
3463
-3.94
-2.06
-0.54
0.62
-2.00
13.19
13.41
Apr-03
3151
-9.00
-14.56
-5.00
-1.15
3.15
8.36
14.78
Apr-04
5788
83.68
17.10
9.44
7.20
4.36
2.63
14.87
Apr-05
6605
14.11
24.02
5.50
7.15
7.13
9.14
15.28
Apr-06
11564
75.08
54.25
26.25
17.74
12.96
9.77
16.29
Apr-07
12625
9.17
29.69
29.52
13.98
13.50
11.78
7.55
Apr-08
15833
25.41
33.83
38.11
23.54
14.54
13.63
13.69
Apr-09
10349
-34.64
-3.63
12.32
16.93
10.87
9.31
6.95
Apr-10
17693
70.96
11.91
21.78
27.95
13.35
13.02
11.81
Apr-11
19420
9.77
7.05
10.92
18.88
18.34
14.85
12.28
Apr-12
17597
-9.39
19.36
6.87
15.03
17.65
10.96
11.25
Mar-13
19570
11.21
3.42
4.33
7.81
20.04
15.14
11.03
Yearly Rolling Returns

34
32
30
28
25
23
20
Negative Returns

11
6
4
3
1
0
0


Summary since 03 Apr 1979


1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
7 Years
10 Years
12 Years
15 Years

Yearly Rolling Return Observations
34
32
30
28
25
23
20

Negative Return Observations
11
6
4
3
1
0
0

Loss Probability (%)
32
19
13
11
4
NIL
NIL

Median Return (%)
10
14
15
19
18
15
15

Average Return (%)
24
18
17
17
17
17
16

Max Return (%)
252
80
52
43
34
34
26

Minimum Return (%)
-45
-15
-5
-2
-2
3
7

Standard Deviation (%)
53
20
14
11
9
7
5