We focus on stocks with good quality that have a good technical structure and that can provide a good risk to reward ratio for us. The typical holding period is 2-6 months for a stock.
Disclaimer: These charts are for educational purposes only. It could be used to idea generation for both trading and investing purposes.
I especially try to not post Corona related articles as that is all one gets to read in all traditional media.
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Experiences, not appearances, make us happy
Most of us try to make decisions intended to bring us greater happiness. The problem is that we misunderstand how our choices really impact our well-being and end up making ones that have the opposite effect. We buy stuff that purports to inspire happiness and end up feeling depressed instead. Knowing some of the typical pitfalls in the search for happiness—especially the ones that seem to go against common sense—can help us improve quality of life.
It’s an old adage that experiences make us happier than physical things. But knowing is not the same as doing.
We maximize our chances at happiness when we prioritize our experience of life instead of acquiring things to fill it with.
https://fs.blog/2020/07/appearances-vs-experiences/
Keep it Simple: Aditya Puri
I have been a big fan of Aditya Puri. He is without doubt one of the greatest bankers in the world along with being a tremendous institution builder. A true legend. An interview with McKinsey.
Noting that HDFC Bank delivered total shareholder returns of more than 16,000 percent under Puri, the Economist suggested that he might be the “world’s best banker.”
To hear Puri tell it, HDFC Bank’s success comes from keeping its business simple by hewing to its founding principles: customer focus, risk management, technology-led innovation, and a “first among equals” culture.
We developed a standard rule that we wouldn’t bet the bank. We also said that credit would be a separate structure from sales and marketing, to keep credit independent. We decided there’s no point having a credit person if that person is going to report to the sales or business leader, because then sales will always prevail. Constructive tension between these functions worked for us.
The true picture of two wheeler sales in India
As per SIAM, a total of around 9.64 million units of two-wheelers were sold in India during this financial year. FADA puts the number at 6.19 million units, almost 36% lower. This is a difference of close to 3.45 million units.
A small part of it stems from the fact that FADA sales numbers do not take into account sales made in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh, which aren’t yet on the government’s Vahan 4 database, which FADA uses to publish the retail sales numbers. But retail sales in just three states can’t explain a difference of 3.45 million units between the SIAM sales number and the FADA sales number.
This basically means that while manufacturers have been selling two-wheelers to retailers and retailers haven’t been able to sell a significant portion of what they have bought from manufacturers to the end consumer. Channel stuffing has been carried out and now the retailers have ended up with a significant amount of inventory. FADA suggests that the average inventory of two-wheelers with dealers is at 45-50 days. This is at the end of the festival season. Last year, at the end of the festival season the two-wheeler retailers had an average inventory of 35-40 days.
People will keep taking their vitamin pills
This year the dietary supplement industry is forecast to grow as much as 20%. Why? Because the pandemic is encouraging people to consume more and more multivitamins to try to boost their immunity, so they don’t contract COVID-19. So what we’ve seen is tremendous increases in vitamin C, vitamin D, E3 and probiotics. It’s a great time to be in the supplement market.
People who have now increased their usage of multivitamins will continue to do so. It’s reinforcing. They didn’t get sick during the pandemic when they took more supplements, so they’ll continue to take more supplements after a vaccine is found. We’re very encouraged that the growth we’re experiencing this year in multivitamins and in vitamins overall will continue in the foreseeable future.
https://glginsights.com/articles/nutraceutical-industry-update/
Learnings from nature
In undisturbed ancient forests, youngsters have to spend their first two hundred years waiting patiently in their mothers’ shade. As they struggle to put on a few feet, they develop wood that is incredibly dense. In modern managed forests today, seedlings grow without any parental shade to slow them down. They shoot up and form large growth rings even without a nutrient boost from added nitrogen. Consequently, their woody cells are much larger than normal and contain much more air, which makes them susceptible to fungi—after all, fungi like to breathe, too. A tree that grows quickly rots quickly and therefore never has a chance to grow old.
https://blas.com/the-secret-wisdom-of-nature/
For building a solid long term portfolio, look at subscribing to www.intelsense.in long term advisory.
For technofunda investing and positional trading, subscribe to our Hitpicks advisory service on www.intelsense.in
For momentum trend following systematic trading, subscribe to Quantamental at www.quantamental.in
How Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny was poisoned?
John Le Carre passed away last week. Here is a real life incident happening now which Le Carre would have been proud to write.
A Russian agent sent to tail opposition leader Alexey Navalny has revealed how he was poisoned in August -- with the lethal nerve agent Novichok planted in his underpants.
The stunning disclosure from an agent who belonged to an elite toxins team in Russia's FSB security service came in a lengthy phone call following the unmasking of the unit by CNN and the online investigative outfit Bellingcat last week.
In what he was told was a debriefing, Konstantin Kudryavtsev also talked about others involved in the poisoning in the Siberian city of Tomsk, and how he was sent to clean things up.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/21/europe/russia-navalny-poisoning-underpants-ward/index.html
Good old decency pays
Decency is one of the attributes that leaders should possess. The core message in David Bodanis’ book, “The Art of Fairness”, can be found in the subtitle: “The power of decency in a world turned mean”. The Empire State Building was constructed in just 13 months, and that included the dismantling of the Waldorf-Astoria hotel that sat on the site. Paul Starrett, the builder, treated his workers rather well by the standards of the time, paying much attention to safety and paying employees on days when it was too windy to work. Daily wages were more than double the usual rate and hot meals were provided on-site. The concept is known as “efficiency wages”. Companies that compensate workers well and treat them fairly can attract better, more motivated staff.
https://www.economist.com/business/2020/12/12/why-fair-play-pays
The bank robbery capital of the world
In 1980s Los Angeles, a bank was robbed every hour of every day. Between 1985 and 1995 the approximately 3,500 retail bank branches in the region were hit 17,106 times. 1992, the worst year of all, there was an almost unimaginable 2,641 heists, one every 45 minutes of each banking day. On a particularly bad day for the FBI that year, bandits committed 28 bank licks.
With more than six million vehicles and more than 1,000 miles of freeway upon which to roam, Los Angeles has created a landscape ideal for bank robberies. By hitting a bank near a freeway onramp, a holdup man can jump on and off and be anonymously cruising surface streets miles away in a completely different police jurisdiction before the cops even get to the crime scene. Switch to a cold car or swap your stolen plates for legal ones and… see ya.
https://crimereads.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-bank-robbery-capital-of-the-world/
Why behavioural economics is itself biased
We spend too little time questioning our understanding of the decisions or observations other people make. If we believe they are in error, we should first question whether the error is ours. we need to inject some humility into our assessment of other people’s decisions. We need stop underestimating the intelligence of other people. We need to tone down the glee we have in communicating sexy, counterintuitive experimental findings that demonstrate errors by others. We need to stop making glib assumptions about what other people want and how they can best achieve their objectives. And importantly, we need to stop being lazy storytellers who don’t subject ourselves to the same critique that we would apply to someone else.
https://evonomics.com/why-behavioral-economics-is-itself-biased/
Compound capital over long periods of time for wealth creation
Buffett’s secret is that he’s been a good investor for 80 years. His secret is time. Most investing secrets are.
Once you accept that compounding is where the magic happens, and realize how critical time is to compounding, the most important question to answer as an investor is not, “How can I earn the highest returns?” It’s, “What are the best returns I can sustain for the longest period of time?”
That’s how you maximize wealth.
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/standing/
For building a solid long term portfolio, look at subscribing to www.intelsense.in long term advisory.
For technofunda investing and positional trading, subscribe to our Hitpicks advisory service on www.intelsense.in
For momentum trend-following systematic trading, subscribe to Quantamental at www.quantamental.in
This year's study is a treat. Not only has the time horizon been increased from 5 years to 25 years for the base study but the focus on creating a detailed QGLP checklist is a great help to the investment community. As I have said many times, QGLP is an primary investment framework that I use very often and think is one of the best and since I am also a checklist driven investor, it would help me personally immensely. I also have 3 separate checklists and I would try to integrate all of them into 1 sometime.
Disclaimer: These charts are for educational purposes only. It could be used to idea generation for both trading and investing purposes.
