Sensex Rolling Retuns - Some observations

I was doing some data analysis on Sensex data from BSE. I have taken the Sensex value for March end (or very close to it) for every year since Sensex was constituted in 1979. It put my mind to rest on the need to keep focussed on the long term and ignore short term market gyrations.

Some interesting observations:-

1. The worst crash in Sensex came not in 2008 but in 1993 courtesy Harshad Mehta. Down 45% in 1993 vs 35% in 2009.
2. The highest return for a year has been 252% in 1992!!! Again, courtesy Harshad bhai. The man giveth and he taketh away!!!
3. So, between 1992 & 1993, investors actually did not lose a lot money if they had stayed invested. Sensex was down 10% over the 2 year period, not a catastrophe.
4. Negative returns for over rolling 5 years starts to become lower and lower and by 12 years, it becomes zero. i.e, there has been no case historically, where an investor has lost money by being invested for 12 years or more.
5. For a period of 3 years or more, the median return is relatively good - 14% or more.

Summary of Observations
		Returns (%)
Date	Sensex	1 Year	3 Years	5 Years	7 Years	10 Years	12 Years	15 Years
Apr-79	124
Apr-80	129	3.92
Apr-81	173	34.47
Apr-82	221	27.34	21.18
Apr-83	213	-3.76	18.12
Apr-84	247	16.06	12.46	14.73
Apr-85	353	43.05	16.91	22.30
Apr-86	582	64.91	39.90	27.40	24.70
Apr-87	524	-9.92	28.56	18.87	22.18
Mar-88	398	-24.03	4.11	13.38	12.61
Apr-89	724	81.71	7.53	24.01	18.48	19.28
Apr-90	783	8.16	14.30	17.27	20.47	19.76
Apr-91	1203	53.63	44.54	15.62	25.39	21.37	20.83
Apr-92	4238	252.34	80.24	51.88	42.63	34.37	33.78
Apr-93	2311	-45.46	43.45	42.14	21.77	26.95	24.08
Mar-94	3779	63.49	46.46	39.17	32.60	31.37	26.70	25.57
Apr-95	3317	-12.23	-7.85	33.47	35.36	25.11	25.73	24.17
Apr-96	3418	3.04	13.92	23.23	24.82	19.36	24.49	21.98
Apr-97	3558	4.10	-1.99	-3.44	24.14	21.10	21.23	20.35
Apr-98	4072	14.46	7.08	11.99	19.03	26.17	17.60	21.75
Apr-99	3686	-9.47	2.55	-0.50	-1.97	17.68	17.65	19.75
Apr-00	5053	37.07	12.41	8.79	11.82	20.50	23.58	19.41
Apr-01	3605	-28.66	-3.98	1.07	-0.67	11.60	14.32	12.92
Apr-02	3463	-3.94	-2.06	-0.54	0.62	-2.00	13.19	13.41
Apr-03	3151	-9.00	-14.56	-5.00	-1.15	3.15	8.36	14.78
Apr-04	5788	83.68	17.10	9.44	7.20	4.36	2.63	14.87
Apr-05	6605	14.11	24.02	5.50	7.15	7.13	9.14	15.28
Apr-06	11564	75.08	54.25	26.25	17.74	12.96	9.77	16.29
Apr-07	12625	9.17	29.69	29.52	13.98	13.50	11.78	7.55
Apr-08	15833	25.41	33.83	38.11	23.54	14.54	13.63	13.69
Apr-09	10349	-34.64	-3.63	12.32	16.93	10.87	9.31	6.95
Apr-10	17693	70.96	11.91	21.78	27.95	13.35	13.02	11.81
Apr-11	19420	9.77	7.05	10.92	18.88	18.34	14.85	12.28
Apr-12	17597	-9.39	19.36	6.87	15.03	17.65	10.96	11.25
Mar-13	19570	11.21	3.42	4.33	7.81	20.04	15.14	11.03
Yearly Rolling Returns		34	32	30	28	25	23	20
Negative Returns		11	6	4	3	1	0	0
Summary since 03 Apr 1979
	1 Year	3 Years	5 Years	7 Years	10 Years	12 Years	15 Years
Yearly Rolling Return Observations	34	32	30	28	25	23	20
Negative Return Observations	11	6	4	3	1	0	0
Loss Probability (%)	32	19	13	11	4	NIL	NIL
Median Return (%)	10	14	15	19	18	15	15
Average Return (%)	24	18	17	17	17	17	16
Max Return (%)	252	80	52	43	34	34	26
Minimum Return (%)	-45	-15	-5	-2	-2	3	7
Standard Deviation (%)	53	20	14	11	9	7	5

Buy when there is blood on the streets

If I reflect back on the last 12-13 years that I have been investing, I see that I have made a significant amount of money when I have bought when there was the proverbial "blood on the streets". I had bought around 2002-03 before the bull market really started (that was more of good luck that a well laid out thought process in action). I again bought right through 2008. And I am buying now as well. I think the "CNBC public" get too swayed by what gets reported. A couple of months back, things were so rosy and now suddenly all mid cap and small caps are collapsing!!

I think it is a good time to look at deep value large caps, good solid mid caps and some adventurous small caps. I am buying small quantities of Unichem Lab, Finolex Cables, Deepak Nitrite, Kaveri Seeds & PI Industries.

Another suggestion - IGNORE ALL TV PROGRAMS ON THE BUDGET!! They add nothing to your investing knowledge or expertise and just create a large amount of noise in the system.

Disclosure: I am interested and invested in all the stocks mentioned in this post. Please due your own due diligence before investing.

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Stock Update:CEBBCO

Salient Points from the Conference Call which was addressed by Ajay Gupta:-

• There is nothing wrong with the operations of the company. No reason for the stock to behave the way it did in the last 2 days.
• Deloitte is our auditor and they have not made any adverse comments about the management ever.
• There are more than 50% non-promoter board members
• Tata Capital has a board member by virtue of their 11% stake in the company. He sits on the management committee and audit committee of the company
• The inter se transfer of shares was requested for because they wanted to create a family trust for tax efficiency. Ajay Gupta and others would transfer their shares to Mr Kailash Gupta and he would then in turn create the trust where all of the promoters would have a stake as before. Because of the many rumours in the market related to this, they have now put this on hold, atleast till Oct 2013 (3 years of listing)
• For the FBV, the company is running at full capacity.
• There is a small delay in capacity expansion - expecting it to be ready in Q4 and available for the full FY14.
• There is no change in the dividend policy of 20% of PAT 

I did not get a feeling that there is something majorly wrong with the company (I may be wrong, but that is the impression I had) . I will wait for a day or two and probably add on some more.

Stock Update: CEBBCO

The last few days for investors in CEBBCO has been traumatic. The stock has literally tanked and is now close to 60 levels. On Friday, it was down nearly 20%. So, overall in a matter of a few weeks, the stock is down nearly 40% (from around 100 levels to 60).

The question in everyone's mind is what should we do now. There are 3 things one can do now -- there are always only these 3 things one can do ;-).
1) Buy more
2) Sell and get out
3) Hold and watch!!

Personally, I am a bit perplexed at the steep 20% fall on Friday. The results that the company announced was reasonable. Net Sales has gone up y-o-y; so has net profit & EPS.

The only negative news that has come out is the pledging of shares by the management. The percentage of shares pledged is fairly low (around 2% of total outstanding shares), so that too should not be a big deal. Unless, insiders know something that we retail investors don't - things like corporate governance issues - there may not be a fundamental case for such a dramatic fall in prices.

So, in this case, I am planning to hold on to my shares - just wait and watch to see further developments. The stock is fairly close to its 52 week low so there may be some buying around these levels (I doubt it though, given he steep fall last week).

Stock Update: JK Lakshmi Cement - Cementing its gains!

Last year in February, I had posted about JK Lakshmi Cement. It has given very good returns in the last year (from close to 60 to 160 today).

 JK Lakshmi cement is setting up a Greenfield cement plant of 2.7 MT at Durg, Chhattisgarh with a capital outlay of 1250 crore, which is expected to be commissioned by Q3FY14. Also, it is in process of reviving its subsidiary, Udaipur Cement works, which currently has a capacity of 1 MT. The company will invest 100-150 crore in this subsidiary. As the 0.55 MT grinding unit at Haryana is fully stabilised and after the commissioning of 2.7 MT Greenfield plant at Durg by Q3FY14, the company will have a total cement capacity of 8.1 MT. However, the full benefit of the Durg expansion will be seen in FY14E.

Q3'13 is expected to be flat or decline slightly in terms of margins. Currently, there is good traction in cement sales from Rajasthan and Gujarat, where JK Lakshmi has good presence. Jan-Mar quarter is usually the best quarter for cement dispatches.

Overall, I am positive about the prospect of the company and I think the best days are yet to come.

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