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Sunday 11 July 2021

Going Down The Quality Curve




We are in a bull market. We have been in one since the cataclysmic fall of March 2020. In the technical sense, markets have been making higher highs. Nearly all technical indicators are bullish, which is usually the case in a bull market. There are a large number of sceptics waiting for a market correction. The market is obliging them once in a while with some pause, sideways consolidation and correction for a few days. 

In the last one year, we have been seeing a very healthy sector rotation which has prevented any linear rise in any sector or a particular stock. The exception had been the Adani group stocks, which has also had their share of fall recently. 64% of stocks are still below Jan 2018 highs created by a booming mid & small cap bull rally.

Looking at the sectors which are rallying will give you a sense of the market. Commodity cyclicals like sugar, steel, cement have been at the forefront of the current rally. But other more "secular growth sectors" like IT, pharma, specialty chemicals have also participated in the rally in the last year. In such a market context, there are two completely divergent thought processes that run in the minds of investors. The first is the fear-of-missing-out. We want to be in the hot stock or the hot sector and ride the rally. We do not want to miss out on the rally that is happening where everyone else seems to be minting money. The opposite fear is that the market valuations are very high and makes us hesitate to deploy our capital fully. We are pulled at one time in two opposite directions and do not know what to do.

In a bull rally, the first casualty becomes the quality of the portfolio. Usually, the best quality companies rarely run spectacularly. They tend to be, what I call, "peaceful compounders". It is the companies a few notches below in the quality curve that runs the hardest. And people with FOMO gravitate towards that. As any market veteran will tell you, you end up with a clutch of poor companies in your portfolio when the ensuing bear market comes. 

So, the first and perhaps the most important thing to remember is to not dilute the portfolio quality. Does that mean you forego the rally and resign yourself to a more flaccid investment performance? Of course not. You can definitely participate in a sectoral rally but ensure that you are buying into the top one or two companies in that sector. And make sure you position size conservatively. Always, think of the downside first. Every bull market brings with it some narrative on why a particular cyclical industry has turned the corner and will henceforth be a secular growth story. Don't fall for that. You should be able to understand both the bull and bear case before you invest.

The second part of investment hesitancy can be avoided by two simple rules. This bull phase may end tomorrow and it may go on for the next five years for all we know. It is important to have a well thought out "systematic" strategy before we invest in a market like this. The first rule of investing in a market like this is by investing slowly, in tranches over time. Take a few months to deploy your capital. Keep nibbling at the stocks you have shortlisted and accumulate them. The second is to have an exit strategy ready. You need to know when and how much you will sell and where you will put the cash. You also have to plan for when and how to get back into the market subsequently. If all that seems very complex and difficult, just buy good quality businesses and try and ignore the short term market gyrations.


This post first appeared in https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/how-to-survive-when-a-bull-market-takes-the-u-turn/articleshow/84256907.cms

Saturday 10 July 2021

Weekend Reading

Reading across disciplines is one of the best ways to improve our investment acumen. Here is a summary of some of the best articles I read this week. If you like this collection, consider forwarding it to someone who you think will appreciate it.


1. Changing your mind
When it comes to the idea that we are wrong, or that we should change our opinions, we are incredibly adept at resisting. We possess an astonishing array of cognitive biases telling us, You are right—disregard all evidence to the contrary. These include confirmation bias (we focus on and preferentially remember information that reinforces our beliefs); anchoring bias (we over-rely on one key piece of information—usually the first one we received); the illusion of validity (we overestimate the accuracy of our own judgments and perceptions); and many other related tendencies. These biases are like a crocodile-filled moat around the fortress of our beliefs. They turn us into hermit kings, convinced that any counterarguments that break through our walls will bring us misery.

If your goal is to find the truth, admitting you are wrong and changing your beliefs based on new facts makes you better off in the end. 


2. Why is China attacking its US listed tech giants?
They’re specifically targeting large tech companies that have gone to list on the US — like Alibaba for instance. And while on the face of it, this makes no sense, you have to pay close attention to what China is up to. Sure, the likes of Didi bring in foreign currency and carry the Chinese flag with pride. But China doesn’t need the money. Nor the validation. They need data. And they’ll go to extreme lengths to protect their digital assets.

Government intervention has never worked well in the past because the task simply proved too overwhelming. Bureaucrats failed to micromanage the economy because they didn’t have access to real-time information. They couldn’t stay on top because the free markets did it better. But with the data revolution, the old constraints may no longer apply. With digital currency, you can decide how people get to use their money. With surveillance, you can decide how people socialize with their communities. With better real-time information, you can decide how to lend to businesses and individuals. And the only common denominator here is 'data'. With data, you can do anything that you want and the real threat to these ambitions seem to stem from the ambitions of tech overlords like Didi.

3. Obesity reducing drug from the venom of the Gila monster!!
After learning that the venom of a Gila monster lizard contained hormones that can regulate blood sugar, Daniel Drucker started wondering why. 
Ten years later, a synthetic version of a hormone in the venom became the first medicine of its kind approved to treat type 2 diabetes. Known as a GLP-1 (for glucagon-like peptide-1) receptor agonist, the medicine set off a cascade of additional venom-inspired discoveries.

After doctors noticed mice and humans on the drug for diabetes appeared to lose weight, they began to consider its use in obesity science. In June 2021, another effective treatment, this one for obesity, got Food and Drug Administration approval. Called semaglutide and marketed as Wegovy, it also takes its structure from the lizard’s venom.

4. Software is modern day alchemy
A common criticism of software is that it’s not something that takes physical form in the real world. For example, software is not a house, or a school, or a hospital. This is of course true on the surface, but it misses a key point.

Software is a lever on the real world.

Someone writes code, and all of a sudden riders and drivers coordinate a completely new kind of real-world transportation system, and we call it Lyft. Someone writes code, and all of a sudden homeowners and guests coordinate a completely new kind of real-world real estate system, and we call it AirBNB. Someone writes code, etc., and we have cars that drive themselves, and planes that fly themselves, and wristwatches that tell us if we’re healthy or ill.

Software is our modern alchemy. Isaac Newton spent much of his life trying and failing to transmute a base element -- lead -- into a valuable material -- gold. Software is alchemy that turns bytes into actions by and on atoms. It’s the closest thing we have to magic.

5. Working hard
What I've learned since I was a kid is how to work toward goals that are neither clearly defined nor externally imposed. You'll probably have to learn both if you want to do really great things.

The most basic level of which is simply to feel you should be working without anyone telling you to. Now, when I'm not working hard, alarm bells go off. I can't be sure I'm getting anywhere when I'm working hard, but I can be sure I'm getting nowhere when I'm not, and it feels awful. 

Once you know the shape of real work, you have to learn how many hours a day to spend on it. You can't solve this problem by simply working every waking hour, because in many kinds of work there's a point beyond which the quality of the result will start to decline.

The only way to find the limit is by crossing it. Cultivate a sensitivity to the quality of the work you're doing, and then you'll notice if it decreases because you're working too hard. Honesty is critical here, in both directions: you have to notice when you're being lazy, but also when you're working too hard. And if you think there's something admirable about working too hard, get that idea out of your head. You're not merely getting worse results, but getting them because you're showing off — if not to other people, then to yourself.

Friday 2 July 2021

Weekend Reading

 


Reading across disciplines is one of the best ways to improve our investment acumen. Here is a summary of some of the best articles I read this week. If you like this collection, consider forwarding it to someone who you think will appreciate it.


1. The coming regime shift towards capital-heavy companies
Investors used to invest in capital-light business models, but now they are flocking towards capital-heavy business models. The trend towards more capital-heavy companies is driven by four structural themes: investment in “reshoring”; a shift from investment in information to infrastructure; the need to develop climate-transition technologies and, finally, investment in technologies needed to secure geopolitical leadership. These all require shifts from investing in ideas and information to investing in stuff. 

Investing in infrastructure, not information, is a theme for governments, companies and investors. The Global Infrastructure Hub estimates global infrastructure needs $94tn of investment over the next 20 years to keep pace with demographics and replacing ageing infrastructure. After decades of neglect, this will boost demand for commodities and capital-heavy companies. The shift towards capex-heavy business models will initially be driven by those sectors that have been starved of capital over the past 20 years as they benefit from reshoring and increased infrastructure spending. However, longer term it could be the nascent technologies required for the climate transition and geopolitical “proxy wars” that deliver increased returns to investors from capital-heavy companies. 

2. How 'Chaos' In The Shipping Industry Is Choking The Economy
In the early days of the pandemic, global trade hit an iceberg and sank into the abyss. Then the economy rebounded, and American consumers unleashed a tidal wave of demand that swept through the shipping industry when they started shifting their spending patterns. Unable to spend money on going out, many started spending their money (and their stimulus checks) on manufactured goods — stuff that largely comes from China on container ships.

At first, it wasn't the ships that were the problem; it was the containers. When the buying spree began, Chinese exporters struggled to get their hands on enough empty boxes, many of which were still stranded in the U.S. because of all the canceled trips at the beginning of the pandemic. More importantly, processing containers here has been taking longer because of all the disruptions and inefficiencies brought about by the pandemic. Containers have been piling up at dockyards, and trains and trucks have struggled to get them out fast enough.

With so much shipping capacity bogged down, importers and exporters have been competing for scarce containers and vessels and bidding up the price of shipping. The cost of shipping a container from China/East Asia to the West Coast has tripled since 2019, according to the Freightos Baltic Index. 

Rising shipping costs and delays are starving the economy of the stuff it needs and contributing to shortages and inflation. It's not just consumers and retailers that are affected: American exporters are complaining that shipping companies are so desperate to get containers back to China quickly that they're making the return trip across the Pacific without waiting to fill up containers with American-made products. 

3. Can literary books predict the next war?
Three years ago, a small group of academics at a German university launched an unprecedented collaboration with the military. The name of the initiative was Project Cassandra: for the next two years, university researchers would use their expertise to help the German defence ministry predict the future.

The academics weren’t AI specialists, or scientists, or political analysts. Instead, the people the colonels had sought out in a stuffy top-floor room were a small team of literary scholars led by Jürgen Wertheimer, a professor of comparative literature.

The group decided instead to focus on what it calls “literary infrastructure”: what happens around the text? How is it being received? “We became interested in what hit a nerve,” Rogge says. “Was a book heaped with awards and state prizes? Or was it banned and the author had to leave the country?”

When Azerbaijan gave anti-Armenian books to Georgian libraries, the project predicted conflict. A year later, war broke out.

4. China tries to take on the US on EV
Fuelled by government largesse, China’s electric-vehicle sector has raced ahead of America’s, sparking fears that the United States has fallen dangerously behind its chief rival in a crucial future industry. China’s “state capitalism” (Beijing prefers “socialism with Chinese characteristics”) is rewriting the rules of how countries and companies compete in the global economy. All governments place their thumb on the scale to favour home grown firms—recall the Obama administration’s bailout of General Motors—but China bends entire markets to a degree unimaginable in the more laissez-faire U.S. By offering funds and protection for nascent, high-tech industries including electric cars, as well as chips, AI, and a host of other futuristic sectors, the Chinese government could potentially swamp the world with subsidized products.

Beijing’s goal is to leapfrog Western powers into the forefront of next-generation technologies, dominance that could hand China’s leaders the political clout to shove the U.S. aside and become the world’s premier superpower. In the process, they would pulverize a key tenet of the American worldview—that free markets and free people are inseparable, and the sole route to national success—and thus legitimize Beijing’s illiberal policies and practices. The contest over electric cars is therefore a proxy war between the West and China, between their economic models and political ideologies.


5. Having a fun portfolio on the side can help you with your long term investment 
One of the reasons 95% of all diets end in failure is it’s impossible to be perfect at all times. That’s why the best diets allow for a cheat day here and there, to let yourself go wild and eat what you want. The same concept applies to portfolio management. Carving out a small piece of your portfolio, call it anywhere from 5% to 20%, offers the ability to cheat on your investment diet.

As long as you have the majority of your portfolio following a long-term plan, you can go nuts in your fun portfolio. You can pick stocks or other speculative investments, time the market, or invest in things you wouldn’t dare put your money in with your non-fun portfolio. Willpower is fleeting because the human brain is like a muscle in many ways: Eventually, it needs to rest. This is why it pays as an investor to automate good decisions ahead of time. The best investment advice the majority of the time is to do nothing and simply follow your long-term investment plan and get out of your own way.

With a small allocation to a fun portfolio, you could test your abilities as an active investor by comparing it with your more boring, low-cost, long-term investments. That way you know whether you’ve got what it takes, or you have a front-row seat to how hard it can be to outperform the market.


Saturday 26 June 2021

Quantamental - Updates for the month


Q30 is having a flattish month after giving up gains notched up in the 1st half of the month. up 1.98% so far in June. Trailing returns for different periods are below: 




Q10 is having another stellar month and is up 8.48% so far in June. Trailing returns for different periods are below 



During bull phases, multi-cap momentum portfolios are usually dominated by smallcaps as they tend to have stronger momentum. A balanced portfolio should also have a fair allocation to large and mid-caps as this segment often continues to do well even in periods, in which smallcaps underperform. Q10 accordingly is built as a complementary strategy to the multi-cap diversified Q30 strategy. A mix of Q30 and Q10 ensures diversification across large, mid and small caps and smoothens the equity curve making it easier to stick to the portfolio and enjoy better long-term returns. 

You may follow @quantindia or my handle @a_basumallick Twitter handle for periodic updates. For any queries or feedback, please email us equity@intelsense.in 

Thursday 24 June 2021

Weekend Reading

 


Reading across disciplines is one of the best ways to improve our investment acumen. Here is a summary of some of the best articles I read this week. If you like this collection, consider forwarding it to someone who you think will appreciate it.


1. Your side projects (hobbies) are more powerful than you think 
It's easy for something new to feel like a project of your own. That's one of the reasons for the tendency programmers have to rewrite things that don't need rewriting, and to write their own versions of things that already exist. This sometimes alarms managers, and measured by the total number of characters typed, it's rarely the optimal solution. But it's not always driven simply by arrogance or cluelessness. Writing code from scratch is also much more rewarding — so much more rewarding that a good programmer can end up net ahead, despite the shocking waste of characters.

Remember that careless confidence you had as a kid when starting something new? That would be a powerful thing to recapture.

If it's harder as adults to retain that kind of confidence, we at least tend to be more aware of what we're doing. Kids bounce, or are herded, from one kind of work to the next, barely realizing what's happening to them. Whereas we know more about different types of work and have more control over which we do. Ideally we can have the best of both worlds: to be deliberate in choosing to work on projects of our own, and carelessly confident in starting new ones.

2. Why do we get misled by misinformation?
Why do people — and by “people” I mean “you and I” — accept and spread misinformation? The two obvious explanations are both disheartening. The first is that we are incapable of telling the difference between truth and lies. In this view, politicians and other opinion-formers are such skilled deceivers that we are helpless, or the issues are so complex that they defy understanding, or we lack basic numeracy and critical-thinking skills. The second explanation is that we know the difference and we don’t care. In order to stick close to our political tribe, we reach the conclusions we want to reach.

There is truth in both these explanations. But is there a third account of how we think about the claims we see in the news and on social media — an account that, ironically, has received far too little attention? That account centres on attention itself: it suggests that we fail to distinguish truth from lies not because we can’t and not because we won’t, but because we are simply not giving the matter our focus.

Pay attention; get some context; ask questions; stop and think. Misinformation doesn’t thrive because we can’t spot the tricks. It thrives because, all too often, we don’t try. We don’t try, because we are confident that we already did.

3. A good shareholder report
There's a reason everybody reads Buffett and Bezos—they give insight into interesting financial concepts, economic outlooks, managerial insight that is far ahead of anything being taught in business school, and more.  So, what are the traits of a best shareholder letter? Specifically, there are five: 
(1) Define the company and its strategy, 
(2) be candid, 
(3) educate, 
(4) tell a story (the investment thesis story), and 
(5) entertain. 
The shareholder letters have impact on stock price. Companies with the best shareholder letters outperformed the Index. If you skip through the corporate jargon phrases and pretty much skim the rest, it will hardly take about two minutes to go through it. A good chunk of companies won’t even have a letter. And the truly great letters could actually save you time in the long run.

Note: At Intelsense, we have decided to go through as many annual reports as possible and summarise them. Link here: http://blog.intelsense.in/2021/06/summary-of-annual-reports.html

4. Mistakes while managing risk (an old but relevant article by NN Taleb)
Instead of trying to anticipate low-probability, high-impact events, we should reduce our vulnerability to them. Risk management, we believe, should be about lessening the impact of what we don’t understand—not a futile attempt to develop sophisticated techniques and stories that perpetuate our illusions of being able to understand and predict the social and economic environment.

To change the way we think about risk, we must avoid making six mistakes:
1. We think we can manage risk by predicting extreme events.
2. We are convinced that studying the past will help us manage risk.
3. We don’t listen to advice about what we shouldn’t do.
4. We assume that risk can be measured by standard deviation.
5. We don’t appreciate that what’s mathematically equivalent isn’t psychologically so.
6. We are taught that efficiency and maximizing shareholder value don’t tolerate redundancy.

No one should have a piece of the upside without a share of the downside.


5. Nassim Taleb explains his views on Bitcoin 
“In its current version, in spite of the hype, bitcoin failed to satisfy the notion of “currency without government” (it proved to not even be a currency at all), can be neither a short or long term store of value (its expected value is no higher than 0), cannot operate as a reliable inflation hedge, and, worst of all, does not constitute, not even remotely, safe haven for one’s investments, shield against government tyranny, or tail protection vehicle for catastrophic episodes.”

A central result (even principle) in the rational expectations and securities pricing literature is that, thanks to the law of iterated expectations, if we  expect that we will expect the price to vary, then by backward induction such a variation must be incorporated in the price now. When there are no dividends, as with growth companies, there is still an expectation of future earnings, and a future expected reward to stockholders–directly via dividends, or indirectly via reverse dilutions and buybacks. Earnings-free assets are problematic. The implication is that, owing to the absence of any explicit yield benefiting the holder of bitcoin, if  we expect that, at any point in the future, the value will be zero when miners are extinct, the technology becomes obsolete, future generations get into other such "assets" and bitcoin loses its appeal to them, then
the value must be zero now.

Friday 18 June 2021

Weekend Reading

 


Reading across disciplines is one of the best ways to improve our investment acumen. Here is a summary of some of the best articles I read this week. If you like this collection, consider forwarding it to someone who you think will appreciate it.

1. China's tech workers are pushed to limits by surveillance software
In China, technology adoption promises its swelling middle classes an easier, more productive life. But as companies bring productivity-enhancing tools into everyday office life, their efficiency is being channeled, not into leisure time, but into squeezing ever more value from employees.

This is particularly the case in China's tech industry, where rapid technological development, paired with poor labor regulations, has created a potential for labor abuse. The big tech companies themselves, locked in cutthroat competition for new business opportunities, are pioneering these technologies and tools in their own operations. From hiring and goal-setting to appraisal and layoff, productivity-enhancing technologies look to quantify workers' behavior by collecting and analyzing extensive amounts of personal data.

Some scholars warn that some practices can be unethical, invading employees' privacy and burdening them with greater workload and mental stress. Others draw parallels to the fatigue faced by factory laborers during industrial revolutions, where workers chased the pace of machines.

The harsh conditions synonymous with China's sweatshop factory culture have come to be identified with the country's technology companies, where workers often endure slavishly long hours to hit objectives set by big data analytics. The environment of intense pressure has, in some cases, created a lethal environment for office workers.

2. The future belongs to the intangibles
Investment in intangible assets that underpin the knowledge or learning economy, such as intellectual property (IP), research, technology and software, and human capital, has risen inexorably over the past quarter-century, and the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have accelerated this shift toward a dematerialized economy.

Investing in intangibles correlates with productivity and sector growth. Regardless of the sector, companies that invest more in intangibles grow more. 

The evidence is stacking up in an age increasingly driven by innovation and knowledge that firms and sectors that invest most heavily in intangibles are reinforcing and deepening their competitive advantage and achieving the highest rates of growth in gross value added. Fast-growing companies invest 2.6 times more than slower-growing counterparts. But investment in intangibles is only a starting point. The full potential of these game-changing assets will not be realized unless companies are smart about how they deploy them to create synergies and scale, and enhance a range of capabilities that can deliver on growth.

3. What's wrong with processed food?
One of the reasons sugar is so prevalent in packaged foods is that ultra-processing tends to eliminate flavours found in nature. Something needs to fill the void: “Sugars are used in large quantities by the food industry to give flavour to foods that have had their intrinsic flavours processed out of them and to mask any unpleasant flavours in the final product. These sugars are not only used as sweeteners but have important technological functions in foods, providing texture, bulk, colour and acting as preservative agents.”

"The problem is that, in the past half-century, a different type of food processing has been developed," says Fernanda Rauber, a nutritional epidemiologist at the University of São Paulo, Brazil, about what we now call "“ultra-processed foods”. "These substances would not be found in our kitchen. Usually, they contain little to no proportion of real foods."

"Very commonly, they use what we call cosmetics additives – colours, flavours, thickener, emulsifiers, gelling agents – to improve the sensory properties of the food, to give something to the substance that otherwise would taste like nothing, just plain starch," says Priscila Machado, a public health nutritionist at Deakin University in Geelong, Australia. "The problem when you think about these substances, in isolation they don’t add anything particularly nutritious to the food. Food is more than the sum of the nutrients they contain. There are no antioxidants and phytochemicals that we find in whole foods if they are stripped out in processing." Even when nutrients are added back in, like cereals fortified with iron or fibre, food might not be as healthy as it seems. Added nutrients don’t work as well as those found in whole foods, she says.

4. The fall of GE ... By Bill Gates
My first big takeaway is that one of GE’s greatest apparent strengths was actually one of its greatest weaknesses. For many years, investors loved GE’s stock because the GE management team always “made their numbers”—that is, the company produced earnings per share at least as large as what Wall Street analysts predicted. It turns out that the culture of making the numbers at all costs gave rise to “success theatre” and “chasing earnings.” In Gryta and Mann’s words, “Problems [were] hidden for the sake of preserving performance, thus allowing small problems to become big problems before they were detected.”

Investors bought into the notion that the company’s world-renowned training made it better at managing things than anyone else, and that GE could produce consistent profits even in highly cyclical markets. And GE successfully persuaded people that its generalists could avoid the pitfalls that had tripped up big conglomerates in the past. In reality, those generalists often didn’t understand the specifics of the industries they had to manage and couldn’t navigate trends in their industries. 

5. Oxford University Press shuts down after 500 years
Oxford University’s right to print books was first recognised in 1586, in a decree from the Star Chamber. 

Oxuniprint’s closure will mark the final chapter for centuries of printing in Oxford, where the first book was printed in 1478, two years after Caxton set up the first printing press in England. There was no formal university press in the city over the next century, but the university’s right to print books was recognised in a decree in 1586, and later enhanced in the Great Charter secured by Archbishop Laud from Charles I, entitling it to print “all manner of books”.

OUP has existed in a recognisable form, with its own printing division, since the 17th century, printing everything from the King James Bible to scholarly works. 

Thursday 17 June 2021

How are the markets positioned? ~ Post by Hitesh Patel

This blog has been penned by Dr Hitesh Patel. Hitesh & Abhishek work together for Intelsense Hitpicks Advisory.