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Tuesday 24 January 2017

Building the Right Investment Temperament - Excerpts from Howard Marks - Part 1

Over the years, I have come to the conclusion that the most critical aspect in investing is to be able to build the right temperament. To me this is the secret sauce that separates the men from the boys and enable some to consistently outperform others, and their benchmarks.

Temperament is something that needs to be learnt through experience. We can augment it by taking a leaf out of the book of the masters. Over the last 15 years, I have tried to read as much as possible about experiences of great investors and fund managers, to try to understand how to improve my temperament.

Let me start a series of posts on this topic over the next few days, with the writings of a great investor who I have followed for the last decade. Not only is he a great investor but he is a fantastic communicator and has that rare gift of making complex subjects appear simple. He also is extremely generous in sharing his knowledge and experience with the general public. He is Howard Marks.
You can read his book "The Most Important Thing Illuminated"


His memos are available at https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos


Here are some excerpts from his book and some commentary where it is necessary:
To me, risk is the most interesting, challenging and essential aspect of investing.
The real test of investing is not getting returns but ensuring the downside is always protected. As Buffett has said famously, "Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1."
You must be aware of what's taking place in the world and of what results those events lead to. Only in this way can you put the lessons to work when similar circumstances materialize again. Failing to do this - more than anything else - is what dooms most investors to being victimized repeatedly by cycles of boom and bust.
History, of markets and in general, is essential to know. You need to understand the causality of consequences of events. Those who do not know history are condemned to repeat it. Which basically means you need to have some mechanism of capturing your past mistakes for posterity and are able to ensure that they are not repeated again.

ACTIONABLE - A checklist of past mistakes and the reason those occurred is a good starting point.

Thursday 29 December 2016

Techno Electric: Q2 Concall Summary

Q2 Concall Summary
  • Order book as on 30th September 2016 stands at Rs.2,500 crores, which includes our L1 position in 765 kV Substation Package at Raigarh, Indore and Itarsi and the package value is about Rs.150 crores.
  • For PGCIL, the ratio of investment between line and substation has undergone change from 80:20 to 65:35.
  • In Wind segment the related challenges have eased, we are witnessing improvement in grid availability in State of Tamil Nadu and the overall wind flow has been positive.
  • Revenue from EPC almost jumped by 47% from Rs.202 crores to Rs.297 crores. Consolidated revenue for the quarter also grew by 34% to Rs.368 crores against Rs.253 crores achieved during the same quarter of the previous year.
  • Operating profit for the EPC segment for the quarter stood at Rs.45.88 crores as against Rs.33 crores, showing a jump of 38.56%. Operating profit margin for the quarter stood at 15.46%.
  • The PAT on standalone basis for the quarter stood at Rs.44.79 crores as against Rs.34.07 crores last year, showing a growth of 31.46%. On consolidated basis, the PAT has jumped by 58% for the quarter at Rs.70 crores against Rs.44.5 crores.
  • Able to manage the receivables within 100-days cycle which is one of the best in the industry.
  • Outlook is very positive. States are now coming more ahead of the Power Grid also in building their own networks particularly the states having more of renewable power with them as well as some transmission networks with the other states. Seeing a strong momentum in the State of MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Andhra, Telengana, Tamil Nadu, all are becoming fairly active.
  • There is no impact on margins with more orders from state electricity board
  • Payments are received directly from the funding agencies like REC/PFC/ADB
  • Domonetization has not adversely impacted operations. On the contrary, it has helped. Construction material cost is now 10% to 15% lower.
  • Consolidated debt is 300cr (275 cr in Simran and 25cr in Techno). Practically, short term debt free (5 cr)
  • Cash balance is 225 cr
  • Expect PAT margin over consolidated top line to be around 14.5-15% this year as against 11-11.5%