Reading across disciplines is one of the best ways to improve our investment acumen. Here is a summary of some of the best articles I read this week. If you like this collection, consider forwarding it to someone who you think will appreciate it.
Reading across disciplines is one of the best ways to improve our investment acumen. Here is a summary of some of the best articles I read this week. If you like this collection, consider forwarding it to someone who you think will appreciate it.
This blog has been penned by Dr Hitesh Patel. Hitesh & Abhishek work together for Intelsense Hitpicks Advisory.
Ever since I left my full-time job and started investing full time, one of the most important things I have looked forward to is reading annual reports, especially of lesser-known companies. But I spent a lot of time in the last two years honing my skills in technical analysis and quantitative analysis.
This year my team at Intelsense and I have decided to read as many annual reports as well and summarize the main qualitative parts into 2-3 page documents. It will help in two ways:
The reason I have focused on the qualitative side is that it is fairly easy to just look up the financials on screener.
I will be posting the summaries on the respective company threads on www.valuepickr.com and also on this blog. In case, the company thread does not exist on VP, I will put it on my catch-all thread (link here: https://forum.valuepickr.com/t/aa-abhisheks-attic-place-to-store-stuff-to-clear-my-head/26195)
If there is any particular AR that anyone is looking to read a summary of, do let me know on and I will try to put it in priority in the queue.
The link to all the reports is http://blog.intelsense.in/p/ar-summaries.html
Quantitative way of thinking is very critical in today's day and age. For example, if we say an industry has high returns on equity, it is technically a meaningless statement. We should dig deeper. How do we define high? Is high to be defined in absolute terms or relative terms. If relative, relative to what and for how long? The moment you start making an effort to quantify things, you will see a lot more clarity. You will need to spell out your assumptions. There is no place to hide behind vague terminology.
There is a lot of discussion on the market being in bubble territory. Again, we should stop ourselves and ask, what is a bubble? How do we quantify a bubble? There are a lot of academic papers on quantifying bubbles but suffice it to say that there is no universal definition or quantifying methodology of a bubble. So, we should try and define what we would think a bubble would be in our own terms. A bubble is when a particular asset price goes up significantly over a short period of time without the underlying cashflow (if any) of the asset changing meaningfully.
So, from a stock market perspective, we could think of a finding out how many stocks are trading say 2x-3x above their 200-day moving average. Another similar approach could be to look at the number of stocks that are above 3 standard deviations of their 200-day moving average. Couple that with a valuation metric like say 3 times PE or PEG or EV/EBIDTA over their mean for 3-5 years. And voila, you have a framework to understand what a bubble looks like. It may not be perfect, but you can keep refining it over time. But your understanding of markets will increase significantly more than listening to random people bandying such terms all over the place.