Weekend Reading

Here come the Bots

Miquela, the digital avatar and music artist created by an L.A.-based entertainment company has signed as CAA’s first virtual client.

Miquela, aka “Lil Miquela,” launched on Instagram in April 2016 without explanation — and today she has 2.2 million followers, plus almost 550,000 on TikTok. The freckle-faced, CGI-generated teen robot is the invention of startup Brud, which positions her as a “Gen Z tastemaker” and has inked brand partnerships for Miquela with companies including Samsung, Prada, Calvin Klein and YouTube.

CAA said it will work with Miquela (pronounced “mih-KAY-lah”) in all areas, including TV, film, and brand strategy and commercial endorsements, raising the prospect of a movie or show featuring the character.

https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/miquela-virtual-influencer-signs-caa-1234599368/

 

Buffett says, "I don't know"

Between the lines of “You can bet on America” were warnings not to be overconfident in predicting what the future might hold.

His positivity, even during difficult economic moments, always radiated with a clear sense of certainty. After all, he is known as the Oracle of Omaha.

That’s why it was unsettling on Saturday to hear him repeatedly say “I don’t know.” He was careful to say the markets would improve in the long term — though his time frame for certainty was decades, not months or not even necessarily years from now.

He said the $137 billion he had on hand “isn’t all that huge when you think about worst-case possibilities.” Let that seep in. He added: “We don’t prepare ourselves for a single problem, we prepare ourselves for problems that sometimes create their own momentum.” That’s coming from the same man who once famously said, “Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/business/dealbook/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway.html

 

Reinventing the supply chain to optimise security

Industrial machine producers, of the kind that make a huge contribution to the German economy, have begun shifting priorities from making the supply chain as cheap as possible to making it as secure as possible.

When it comes to the use of robotics in industrial production, Germany is among the world leaders, behind such countries as Singapore and South Korea. Even mid-sized companies like Arburg are increasingly embracing them. They can be used around the clock, they don't get sick and they don't have to go on vacation. They also don't have to stay 1.5 meters away from each other in times of pandemic. In short, they make it possible for production to continue in Germany.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/future-of-our-global-economy-the-beginning-of-de-globalization-a-126a60d7-5d19-4d86-ae65-7042ca8ad73a

 

China is starting to face a backlash from Europe

If 2019 was the year when Europeans began having serious doubts about Beijing’s geopolitical intentions, 2020 may go down in history as the moment they turned against China in defiance. The EU’s diplomatic service assembled a report on the disinformation campaigns being waged by China and that other usual suspect, Russia. China promptly made a bad situation worse, leaning on the publication’s authors to tone it down. At this, members of the European Parliament took even more umbrage and demanded assurances that the EU will not self-censor under Chinese pressure.

Even before the pandemic, Europeans were becoming disappointed by the one-sided nature of these “partnerships,” both economically and politically. China’s largest trading partner in Europe, Germany, has also put up its guard after several Chinese companies took stakes in German technology firms ranging from a robot maker to a power company. Last year, Berlin tightened the rules on such sensitive acquisitions. The EU followed suit, with a common investment-screening approach taking effect this year. Meant to preserve Europe’s technological and industrial autonomy, it implicitly aims to keep China at bay.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/from-france-to-sweden-china-is-losing-europe

 

A short history of who owns the roads - cars or pedestrians?

"In the early days of the automobile, it was drivers' job to avoid you, not your job to avoid them," says Peter Norton, a historian at the University of Virginia and author of Fighting Traffic: The Dawn of the Motor Age in the American City. "But under the new model, streets became a place for cars — and as a pedestrian, it's your fault if you get hit."

One of the keys to this shift was the creation of the crime of jaywalking. Here's a history of how that happened.

This was also part of the final strategy: shame. In getting pedestrians to follow traffic laws, "the ridicule of their fellow citizens is far more effective than any other means which might be adopted," said E.B. Lefferts, the head of the Automobile Club of Southern California in the 1920s. Norton likens the resulting campaign to the anti-drug messaging of the '80s and '90s, in which drug use was portrayed as not only dangerous but stupid.

Thoughts on Markets

Tussle between Bulls and Bears

Currently, there is a boxing match going on between liquidity & low-interest rates on one hand and business and economic uncertainty on the other. In March, round one had gone to uncertainty and in April, in round two, liquidity won. So, right now, round wise we are 1-1 but uncertainty had struck heavier blows and has more points (the market is down more than up)! 

Just to understand the liquidity situation, let’s look at what is happening around the world.

• US: $5 trillion stimulus package announced. Roughly, 25% of GDP.
• UK: GBP 500 billion stimulus package announced. Roughly, 25% of GDP.
• Eurozone: Euro 3.2 trillion stimulus package announced. Roughly, 24% of GDP.
• US: Yen 108 trillion stimulus package announced. Roughly, 20% of GDP.

So, both sides are strong and it is not very clear who will win the next few rounds. 

The central banks globally are using their 2008 playbook and have jumped in very quickly to the rescue. That is why even Warren Buffett is sitting holding his 130+ billion dollars of cash. But no one is calling to offer him great deals that he got in 2008 because the guys who need the cash have now got it from the central banks in some roundabout way.

Compare this with what the Indian government and RBI has done for the industry – practically nothing. And unless some significant measures come in, India is going to have to pay for the consequences for a long time. 

The Way Forward

I am of the opinion after speaking to a large number of business owners over the last few weeks that the next 1-1.5 years will be extremely tough. The level of uncertainty is only going to go down as and when a vaccine is found and is delivered to the masses and is effective in preventing a further outbreak. Till then we are going to be wary of the circumstances. The more the duration of the lockdown goes on and the more social distancing norms gets mainstreamed, the more persistent behaviour changes are likely to be. The scars of this event will be there for a fairly long period in my opinion.

The urban salaried and business class are likely to be badly affected with reduced income from salaries or businesses. This is likely to have a negative impact on discretionary spending. So, sectors like real estate, both residential and commercial; 4 wheelers, luxury items, leisure travel are likely to be hit much longer than people are currently factoring in. 

Another area of concern for me is how the startup space will play out. The “thin-air” valuation model is likely to come under severe scrutiny and make way for more profitable and cashflow oriented business models. The concern is that in the last few years, the bulk of incremental jobs in India, especially at the lower end of the spectrum, has come from these “non-profitable” enterprises (the likes of Oyo, Swiggy, Zomato, Ola, Uber, Flipkart, Amazon, Paytm etc). Impact to such businesses would mean a chain reaction and lead to joblessness. 

Civil Distress

History tells us that severe economic contractions most of the time lead to social unrest, civil wars and even full-scale wars between countries. I am not suggesting we would have it this time around, but we need to be aware of such an outcome. Already social tensions have started rising and with more duress in daily life, it is likely to escalate. The government does have a significant role to play in this through various social schemes. 

Silver Lining

Some areas which give me comfort is that a very large section of Indians depends on agriculture and that has been the least impacted in the crisis. With, hopefully, a good monsoon, we should be able to see rural demand coming back.

Another silver lining is the reset in labour laws that states are now resorting to. Times of crisis such as these are great opportunities for policy reset which is particularly difficult to get done during normal times. Labour and land reforms are the two most critical issues that have been holding back Indian industry and any progress on these should be welcomed. 

In times like this, it is better to remain cautious. There are 3 positions an investor can take in the market at any time – i) be a buyer, ii) be a seller and iii) wait outside. 

Now seems a good time to be waiting outside.

Weekend Reading

Reading across disciplines is one of the best ways to improve our investment acumen. Here is a summary of some of the best articles I read this week.

Signalling as a service: A super article

Most of our everyday actions can be traced back to some form of signalling or status-seeking. Our brains deliberately hide this fact from us and others (self-deception).

eBooks have never caught up with paper books despite being more convenient. On the contrary, physical book sales have remained stable (and in some markets even increased) in recent years. Interestingly though, people spend less time reading them. Their value seems to stem from lying around the house to impress visitors (see also coffee table books) – a benefit digital books simply can’t offer.

https://julian.digital/2020/03/28/signaling-as-a-service/

The hidden agenda in reporting and the secret to reading critically

The secret to reading critically? Ask yourself this:

Why am I reading this article NOW?

Just do that. You’re not saying that the article is a lie. You’re not saying that the article isn’t important. You’re saying that there is a metagame at play here with the author and the sources of that article. You’re saying that you are aware of that metagame and you’re going to take that into account before deciding your behaviour in reaction to that article.

Who are the Writers of the World-As-It-Is? They are Republicans. They are Democrats. They are central bankers. They are pundits. They are politicians. They are oligarchs. They are in every nation on Earth. They have ONE thing in common. They’re Writing for their own political and economic advantage. And they’re really, really good at shaping our behaviours with their words.

It’s never been more important to read critically and think critically. Not because you’re a nihilist or you believe in nothing. But because you believe in yourself. Because you’re smart enough and wise enough to make up your own damn mind.

https://www.epsilontheory.com/why-am-i-reading-this-now/

Why is Xerox (or others) making hand sanitizer?

Xerox is going to soon start manufacturing hand sanitizer. It's also getting into the ventilator business. Earlier this month, a partnership with a technology firm was announced that will help Xerox manufacture a specific type of ventilator and monitor for hospitals and emergency response units.

If you asked their executives a year ago if they planned to get into the hand sanitizer or ventilator business, they would react as if you'd lost your mind. But now these businesses might turn out to be potential longer-term revenue streams. Who knows?

Hand sanitizer might be the foundation of a new strategy to make and sell other office-related supplies that could be positioned to dovetail nicely with Xerox's workplace offerings. The manufacture of ventilators will certainly keep the company’s workforce engaged and thinking during these slower times, and who knows what new techniques for making office equipment will be discovered while in the process of making hospital equipment? And hey … with Xerox’s existing infrastructure, maybe manufacturing ventilators is more profitable than manufacturing printers. This could be an entirely new venture. Again, who knows?

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/349692

What drives private markets in India - growth or alpha?

The growth we computed as the return in the financial performance of the investee company from the time of entry to the time of exit. We determined Alpha by calculating the difference between overall IRR and Growth. This represented the PE/VC fund’s ability to invest at a valuation multiple lower than that at which it could exit from the investee company.

Since private transactions incorporate something of a discount for lack of marketability (DLOM), our initial hypothesis was that Alpha’s contribution to IRR would be substantial. Instead, we found Growth accounted for 31.3% and Alpha just 5.1% per year of IRR (Total IRR = [(1+ growth%) * (1+alpha%) -1].

So to return to the question posed in our title, our analysis of PE/VC backed Indian IPOs since 1 January 2015 gives a clear answer. Funds generated the vast majority of the 38% average IRR because they invested in high-growth companies in their early years.

Growth, not Alpha, then is the key driver of PE/VC returns in India.

https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2020/04/27/what-drives-indian-private-equity-returns-growth-or-alpha/

The new digital currency in China

China will begin trialling payments in its new digital currency in four major cities from next week. In recent months, China’s central bank has stepped up its development of the e-RMB, which is set to be the first digital currency operated by a major economy. State-media outlet China Daily said it had been formally adopted into the cities’ monetary systems, with some government employees and public servants to receive their salaries in the digital currency from May.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/28/china-starts-major-trial-of-state-run-digital-currency

Weekend Reading

Reading across disciplines is one of the best ways to improve our investment acumen. Here is a summary of some of the best articles I read this week.

The interconnectedness of financial systems

Many people did not realise how interconnected the financial system was. For instance, brokers in the equity market, who rely on customers buying and selling, did not realise how much of this trading business was driven by leveraged investors in the debt market. The brokers were always good at creating noise, but now it is very quiet on the trading side. But we do know that the City never stays the same for very long. History suggests that finance will always go through cycles. My model suggests we tend to overweight recent events, and tend to play down the longer-term, historical context.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/bruce-packard-are-the-banks-fixed-if-you-want-to-separate-the-signal-from-the-noise-just-ask-the-rev-8225248.html

Specific curiosity is what makes the difference

Curiosity predicts creativity when it is deployed within narrow parameters, to solve a particular problem or puzzle – or, as scholars term it, specific curiosity. Creativity scholars usually focus on the curiosity that freely flits from subject to subject, tracing novel trajectories as it goes. Specific curiosity is more discomfiting, resembling an itch to resolve a highly localised point of uncertainty or challenge.

This form of curiosity can be harnessed for creative purposes through a technique known as idea linking. When people are high on specific curiosity, they don’t just generate whatever ideas come to their mind randomly. Rather, they would have an initial idea and their next idea would be built upon the initial idea without abandoning it.

The idea that stepping outside your comfort zone is a good way to liberate the creative juices provided the context is sufficiently forgiving

https://knowledge.insead.edu/leadership-organisations/how-discomfort-makes-us-more-creative-13866

Do less to achieve more

To “do less” is to slow down. Focus on one activity at a time. Do less total activities. Be willing to pass through occasional interludes of full non-productivity. To “do better” is to direct your focused energy toward quality activities, when possible. Finally, to “know why” is to get at the very core of the deep life mindset. Working backwards from your values to determine your activities creates a lifestyle dramatically more meaningful than working forward from whatever seems appealing in the moment. It’s the difference between resilience and anxiety; satisfaction and distraction.

The deep life is not an ambitious one-shot goal, like completing a marathon, that you work hard at until you one day obtain it all at once. It’s a state of being with which you become increasingly comfortable. A process that starts with your mind.

https://www.calnewport.com/blog/2020/04/20/more-on-cultivating-a-deep-life-mindset/

Role of luck in our lives

An interview worth reading on the role of luck in our lives.

The whole process of constructing life narratives is biased in ways that almost guarantee that people won’t recognize the role of chance events adequately. So, you’ve been successful, you’ve been at it 30 years. It’s true that you’ve worked hard all that time, you got up early, you put in a lot of effort, those memories are all very plentiful and available in your memory bank. You’ve solved lots of difficult problems. You remember examples of those, too. You know the formidable opponents that you’ve vanquished along the way. How can you forget them?  So, if somebody says, “Why did you succeed?” those things are going to get top billing in your story.

Maybe there was a teacher who helped steer you through trouble in the 11th grade. You don’t remember that. Maybe you got a promotion early on when one of your colleagues who were slightly better qualified had to turn it down because he had to stay and take care of an ailing parent. You don’t remember that either. Then there’s all this work on the asymmetry of memory.

You’re running into the wind, you’re keenly aware of it every second. You turn the corner and the wind is at your back. That’s good. You like that. But then two minutes into the return course you’ve forgotten completely about the fact that you’ve got something helping you along. Because a headwind is something that you have to work actively to overcome, you almost can’t fail to notice it. But a tailwind helps you along; it’s out of your field of vision mostly. You don’t think about it because you don’t have to think about it.

http://nautil.us/issue/44/luck/dont-tell-your-friends-theyre-lucky

The best appreciation is when your competitors applaud

Over 20 years of watching different businesses -- incumbents like Blockbuster and Walmart and all these companies -- I’ve never seen such a good execution of the incumbent learning the new way and mastering it.

Netflix CEO Reed Hastings is a big fan of Disney+. 

Disney announced its flagship subscription video service, Disney+, has gained more than 50 million subscribers in just six months since the service debuted in November. Hastings called the rapid accumulation of subscribers “stunning.” Disney+ costs $6.99 per month and is the home for Disney’s large archive of movies, including Marvel, Pixar, and Star Wars films, along with other original content.

“To see both the execution and the numbers line up, my hat’s off to them,” Hastings said. “Great execution, clarity around brand and focus really makes a difference.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/netflix-ceo-reed-hastings-praises-disney-plus-execution.html

Weekend Reading

Reading across disciplines is one of the best ways to improve our investment acumen. Here is a summary of some of the best articles I read this week.

Get back the lost art of reflection

A focus on information processing, reaction, and execution — while it may feel productive — causes the quality of our thoughts to suffer.

In reflective thought, a person examines underlying assumptions, core beliefs, and knowledge, while drawing connections between apparently disparate pieces of information. 

Time is a precondition for slow thinking. To develop a routine, time for reflection should be a regularly scheduled and a protected event. A list of divergent questions can be a very useful tool for elevating oneself above tactical considerations.

https://hbr.org/2017/09/how-to-regain-the-lost-art-of-reflection

The Chinese have been focused on creating their own narratives

For decades, Beijing’s approach to shaping its image has been defensive, reactive and largely aimed at a domestic audience. The most visible manifestation of these efforts was the literal disappearance of content inside China: foreign magazines with pages ripped out, or the BBC news flickering to black when it aired stories on sensitive issues such as Tibet, Taiwan or the Tiananmen killings of 1989. Beijing’s crude tools were domestic censorship, official complaints to news organisations’ headquarters and expelling correspondents from China.

But over the past decade or so, China has rolled out a more sophisticated and assertive strategy, which is increasingly aimed at international audiences. China is trying to reshape the global information environment with massive infusions of money – funding paid-for advertorials, sponsored journalistic coverage and heavily massaged positive messages from boosters. While within China the press is increasingly tightly controlled, abroad Beijing has sought to exploit the vulnerabilities of the free press to its advantage.

In its simplest form, this involves paying for Chinese propaganda supplements to appear in dozens of respected international publications such as the Washington Post. Meanwhile, in the US, lobbyists paid by Chinese-backed institutions are cultivating vocal supporters known as “third-party spokespeople” to deliver Beijing’s message, and working to sway popular perceptions of Chinese rule in Tibet. China is also wooing journalists from around the world with all-expenses-paid tours and, perhaps most ambitiously of all, free graduate degrees in communication, training scores of foreign reporters each year to “tell China’s story well”.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/dec/07/china-plan-for-global-media-dominance-propaganda-xi-jinping

Re-ordering of supply chains are starting

Japan has earmarked US$2.2 billion of its record economic stimulus package to help its manufacturers shift production out of China, as the coronavirus disrupts supply chains between the major trading partners.

The extra budget, compiled to try to offset the devastating effects of the pandemic, includes 220 billion yen (US$2 billion) for companies shifting production back to Japan and 23.5 billion yen for those seeking to move production to other countries, according to details of the plan posted online.

The move coincides with what should have been a celebration of friendlier ties between the two countries.

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3079126/japan-pay-firms-leave-china-relocate-production-elsewhere-part

A primer on electric cars

Electric vehicles or EVs may just be the single largest disruption to hit the car industry in its 133-year history. No, the world may not be moving as fast as initially expected towards e-mobility, and there still are massive hurdles to overcome. But as Victor Hugo said, “nothing can stop an idea whose time has come.” 

https://www.autocarindia.com/car-news/the-abcs-of-electric-cars-412583

A slightly detailed look into the next in battery technology

Despite over two centuries of close study since the first battery was invented in 1799, scientists still don’t fully understand many of the fundamentals of what exactly happens inside batteries. What we do know is that there are, essentially, three problems to solve in order for batteries to truly transform our lives yet again: power, energy, and safety.

https://qz.com/1588236/how-we-get-to-the-next-big-battery-breakthrough/?linkId=69597265

Using Stop Loss in Investing

Should you have a stop loss if you are an investor? That is the question I have have been trying to answer for myself. I have been dabbling with various quant systems and obviously stop losses is a part of the thought process in any trading system.

Stop loss is a simple yet extremely powerful concept. It can protect you from major catastrophes that can completely erode your portfolio to protect a large part of gains made (when used as protective stops). It is part of the "money management" or "allocation" strategy followed in trading systems.

Money management is perhaps one of the most important things that I learnt while studying quant systems. And I find that not knowing it was stupid. Every investor MUST know about money management and adapt it to their own investing style. More on money management later.

There are only 2 types of stocks - trending and mean-reverting. 

Trending stocks are those that follow a trend (it keeps going up or down over time - since we are usually all long-only investors I will talk about price rise trends). The rising price trend is usually but not necessarily improving fundamentals like earnings. Examples are many like Pidilite, Asian Paints, HDFC Bank etc.

Mean reverting stocks are those where the prices keep oscillating about a mean position (which also tends to slant upwards but at a much lower slope). Practically, most stocks belong to this category. 

Stop loss should be used differently for the 2 types of stock. 

If you have bought a trending stock, a stop loss is a must. It helps in preventing massive losses in case your thesis is wrong or there is a major market correction. It also prevents in locking in gains by the use of a trailing stop loss. (A trailing stop loss is one where you keep raising the stop price as the price of the stock keeps going up). If you have bought a trending stock at 100, and it falls to 80, the trend is possibly broken and you need to reevaluate your thesis and hence get out of the position. Exactly, the same situation with a trailing stop. It gets hit when the trend reverses.

On the other hand, if you have bought a mean-reversion stock, where you are expecting a change in fortune, then a stop loss initially is a STUPID idea. This is precisely why Warren Buffett or any other value investor do not use stop losses. Value investing, by definition, is a mean-reversion strategy, where you are expecting the price of the stock to revert back to its mean "value". In a mean-reverting stock, let's say you have bought it at 100 and expect it to revert to its intrinsic value of 150 in some time period. Now if the price falls to 80, ideally your philosophy should drive you to buy more at the lower price since you are now getting a better bargain and potentially more profits when the stock does mean revert.

How to set stops?

There are many ways stops can be put. Unfortunately, there is no correct way. Different people use different methods based on their trading style, capital at risk, investment horizon etc. Some basic strategies are:
1) Using a fixed percentage stop loss (say 10% or 20% from buy price)
2) Based on technical chart patterns (support levels, breakout levels, gaps etc)
3) Based on statistical indicators (Fibonacci levels, moving averages, ATR etc)
4) Volatility based
5) PE based (exit at x PE)
6) Growth level based (if earnings growth falls below x% for 2 quarters in a row)
7) So on and so forth...

Stop levels need to be in line with your capital and time horizon. If you keep a 5% stop loss and your a long term investor, you will get stopped out 99% of the time. You need to understand the volatility of the particular stock and make sure you do not get stopped out under normal market gyrations. However, if you are a day trader and are trying to make 1% return from the stock, even a 1% stop loss may be way too high.

Portfolio level stop loss vs individual stock stop loss

The next problem is whether to have an individual stop loss for a stock or a stop at the portfolio level. Again, like in nearly everything in life, the answer is "it depends". Individual stop loss, in my opinion, should be more liberal, if you are a long term investor. Something like 30-40% or even 50%. But if you combine it with a market level stop loss, then it could get triggered at a lower combined level. 
For example, say you have bought a stock at 100 and you have a 30% stop loss on it. You expect the stock to double in the next 4-5 years. When you bought it, the Nifty was at 11,000. Now, the markets start tanking and Nifty falls to 8800, which is a 20% loss on the index. Now, if you have a complex stop loss which takes both individual stock price and the index price, then you could actually be stopped out of the position even without the individual stock not having lost 30%.

Single or Graded Stops

You can use either single stop loss to get out of your entire position or graded stop loss to get out gradually. Example: Sell 50% at a 20% stop, and then 10% every 5% fall.  

Does a stop loss reduce drawdowns or lock-in losses? What is the impact on profits?

This is the most crucial question that very few people actually ask. I have been dabbling with this for a while now. **Stop loss in my studies, nearly always, reduces returns.** Obviously, there are many assumptions that have gone in the data studying primary amongst which is that you are not a very poor stock picker and you make reasonable profits when the markets are doing well. If you are not sure if you are a good stock picker, then use a stop. It is like a helmet. It will save your life if you crash.
However, if you are a good stock picker and have a good track record, 9 / 10 times your stop will get hit and the stock will recover ground post that. Only in very very rare cases like a DHFL or a Yes Bank would it protect you immensely. But then again, if you were a good stock picker you would have gotten out of those even without a stop loss. 

Is a stop loss strategy a behavioural strategy more than a money management strategy?
A stop loss is mostly a behavioural strategy. It is also a strategy for those who do not know the stocks they are buying so in a way it is ignorance insurance. It protects you from the unknown and from making stupid catastrophic mistakes. 

BOTTOM LINE: Since the world is dynamic and you can never know everything about everything, having an exit strategy is important for all your investments.  Stop losses are part of that exit strategy.

Annual Performance Review - Intelsense Model Portfolio

We completed 1 year as an advisory on 31-Mar-2020. What a year it has been. Something we are unlikely to forget in our lifetimes. I am sitting at home as part of the unprecedented countrywide lockdown and writing this note.

First the performance.

Model Portfolio	-12.1%
Nifty	-26.3%
Nifty 500	-27.9%

The report and some thoughts are available here.

Stay indoors. Stay safe.