Abhishek Basumallick
is the Head of the equity advisory www.intelsense.in for long term wealth creation and a pure
quant focused newsletter at www.quantamental.in. Nothing in the article should be construed
as investment advice. Please do your own due diligence before investing.
Equity Advisory
Thursday 11 June 2020
The Journey to be a Full-Time Investor
Thursday 4 June 2020
Weekend Reading
Reading across disciplines is one of the best ways to improve our investment acumen. Here is a summary of some of the best articles I read this week.
I especially try to not post Corona related articles as that is all one gets to read in all traditional media.
If you like the collection this consider forwarding it to someone who you think will appreciate.
This is a double error. First, disciplines do not constitute different parts of reality; they are different aspects of reality, different points of view. Any part of reality can be viewed from any of these aspects. The whole can be understood only by viewing it from all the perspectives simultaneously.
Second, the separation of our different points of view encourages looking for solutions to problems with the same point of view from which the problem was formulated.
https://thesystemsthinker.com/a-lifetime-of-systems-thinking/
100,000 year old extinct bird come back
The Aldabra white-throated rail bird was declared extinct, a victim of rising sea levels almost 100,000 years ago.
However, the flightless brown bird has recently been spotted – leaving scientists scratching their heads as to how – and why – the species has come back to life.
According to research in the Zoological Journal of Linnean Society, the re-incarnated Aldabra bird is a product of ‘iterative evolution’. That’s when old genes thought to have died out re-emerge at a different point in time.
While iterative evolution has previously occurred in species such as turtles, it has never been seen in the realm of birds.
“We know of no other example in the rails, or of birds in general, that demonstrates this phenomenon so evidently,” said paleobiologist David Martill, in a statement.
“Only on the Aldabra, which has the oldest palaentological record of any oceanic island within the Indian Ocean region, is fossil evidence available that demonstrates the effects of changing sea levels on extinction and recolonization events.”
https://www.esquireme.com/content/46133-an-extinct-bird-just-evolved-itself-back-into-existence
The rise and rise of TikTok
TikTok has become the best way to create and consume short videos on mobile. It rode the wave of AirPods and audio memes to over 1 billion DAU’s (Daily Active Users), and is likely worth ~$200 billion. This would make it not only the world’s most valuable "startup” but one of the world’s most valuable companies, period.
https://turner.substack.com/p/the-rise-of-tiktok-and-understanding
Journey to take back control of your info on the internet
Deciding to delete your information online is the easy part. The hard part is figuring out where to start.
For many, the obvious answer would be focusing on consumer-facing services such as Facebook and Google, where we willingly -- if not always consciously -- hand over data about ourselves on a daily basis.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/21/tech/deleting-personal-data-online/index.html
Take a few deep breaths
He started small by taking three deep breaths each time he sat down at his desk. He found it helped him relax. After three breaths became a habit, he expanded to a few minutes a day. He found he was more patient, calmer, more in the moment. Now he does 30 minutes a day. It restores his perspective while enabling him to take a fresh look at a question or problem and come up with new solutions. Deep breathing exercises have been part of yoga practices for thousands of years, but recent research done at Harvard’s Massachusetts General Hospital document the positive impact deep breathing has on your body’s ability to deal with stress.
https://hbr.org/2013/11/reduce-your-stress-in-two-minutes-a-day
Saturday 23 May 2020
Weekend Reading
I especially try to not post Corona related articles as that is all one gets to read in all traditional media.
Expand your mind
No, my worry is that, especially now that you’re out of college, you won’t put enough really excellent stuff into your brain. I’m talking about what you might call the “theory of maximum taste.” This theory is based on the idea that exposure to genius has the power to expand your consciousness. If you spend a lot of time with genius, your mind will end up bigger and broader than if you spend your time only with run-of-the-mill stuff.
The theory of maximum taste says that each person’s mind is defined by its upper limit—the best that it habitually consumes and is capable of consuming.
Branded face masks coming!
Disney is selling cloth face masks featuring Anna and Elsa, Woody and Buzz Lightyear and Baby Yoda, among other characters. Sports leagues like the NBA and NFL are also selling licensed face masks with team logos.
One startup, MaskClub.com, even offers a monthly subscription service that launched in early April for reusable cloth face masks featuring a few thousand licensed designs such as Betty Boop, NASA and images from iconic TV hits like Beverly Hills 90210.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/19/business/face-masks-wellness-licensed-brands/index.html
Is medicine good for us?
Problems arise because of a few structural features of medicine. A prominent one is the profit incentive. The pharmaceutical industry is extremely profitable, and the fantastic financial gains to be made from selling drugs create incentives to engage in some of the practices above. Another prominent feature of medicine is the hope and the expectation of patients that medicine can help them, coupled with the training of physicians to actively intervene, by screening, prescribing, referring or cutting. Another feature is the wildly complex causal basis of many diseases, which hampers the effectiveness of interventions on those diseases – taking antibiotics for a simple bacterial infection is one thing, but taking antidepressants for depression is entirely different.
https://aeon.co/ideas/how-gentle-medicine-could-radically-transform-medical-practice
Do less to achieve more
We’ve been taught that if we want more — money, achievement, vitality, joy, peace of mind — we need to do more, to add more to our ever-growing to-do list. But what if we’ve been taught wrong? What if the answer to getting more of what we want isn’t addition at all, but subtraction?
As it turns out, evidence supports that if we want to ramp up our productivity and happiness, we should actually be doing less.
We need to identify what not to do. But this determination can’t be random.
https://hbr.org/2020/05/want-to-be-more-productive-try-doing-less
Tech for tomorrow
A reasonably detailed, yet high-level view of the changes happening in the tech world.
https://medium.com/software-is-eating-the-world/what-s-next-in-computing-e54b870b80cc
If you like the collection this consider forwarding it to someone who you think will appreciate it.
Friday 15 May 2020
Weekend Reading
Here come the Bots
Miquela, the digital avatar and music artist created by an L.A.-based entertainment company has signed as CAA’s first virtual client.
Miquela, aka “Lil Miquela,” launched on Instagram in April 2016 without explanation — and today she has 2.2 million followers, plus almost 550,000 on TikTok. The freckle-faced, CGI-generated teen robot is the invention of startup Brud, which positions her as a “Gen Z tastemaker” and has inked brand partnerships for Miquela with companies including Samsung, Prada, Calvin Klein and YouTube.
CAA said it will work with Miquela (pronounced “mih-KAY-lah”) in all areas, including TV, film, and brand strategy and commercial endorsements, raising the prospect of a movie or show featuring the character.
https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/miquela-virtual-influencer-signs-caa-1234599368/
Buffett says, "I don't know"
Between the lines of “You can bet on America” were warnings not to be overconfident in predicting what the future might hold.
His positivity, even during difficult economic moments, always radiated with a clear sense of certainty. After all, he is known as the Oracle of Omaha.
That’s why it was unsettling on Saturday to hear him repeatedly say “I don’t know.” He was careful to say the markets would improve in the long term — though his time frame for certainty was decades, not months or not even necessarily years from now.
He said the $137 billion he had on hand “isn’t all that huge when you think about worst-case possibilities.” Let that seep in. He added: “We don’t prepare ourselves for a single problem, we prepare ourselves for problems that sometimes create their own momentum.” That’s coming from the same man who once famously said, “Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/business/dealbook/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway.html
Reinventing the supply chain to optimise security
Industrial machine producers, of the kind that make a huge contribution to the German economy, have begun shifting priorities from making the supply chain as cheap as possible to making it as secure as possible.
When it comes to the use of robotics in industrial production, Germany is among the world leaders, behind such countries as Singapore and South Korea. Even mid-sized companies like Arburg are increasingly embracing them. They can be used around the clock, they don't get sick and they don't have to go on vacation. They also don't have to stay 1.5 meters away from each other in times of pandemic. In short, they make it possible for production to continue in Germany.
China is starting to face a backlash from Europe
If 2019 was the year when Europeans began having serious doubts about Beijing’s geopolitical intentions, 2020 may go down in history as the moment they turned against China in defiance. The EU’s diplomatic service assembled a report on the disinformation campaigns being waged by China and that other usual suspect, Russia. China promptly made a bad situation worse, leaning on the publication’s authors to tone it down. At this, members of the European Parliament took even more umbrage and demanded assurances that the EU will not self-censor under Chinese pressure.
Even before the pandemic, Europeans were becoming disappointed by the one-sided nature of these “partnerships,” both economically and politically. China’s largest trading partner in Europe, Germany, has also put up its guard after several Chinese companies took stakes in German technology firms ranging from a robot maker to a power company. Last year, Berlin tightened the rules on such sensitive acquisitions. The EU followed suit, with a common investment-screening approach taking effect this year. Meant to preserve Europe’s technological and industrial autonomy, it implicitly aims to keep China at bay.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/from-france-to-sweden-china-is-losing-europe
A short history of who owns the roads - cars or pedestrians?
"In the early days of the automobile, it was drivers' job to avoid you, not your job to avoid them," says Peter Norton, a historian at the University of Virginia and author of Fighting Traffic: The Dawn of the Motor Age in the American City. "But under the new model, streets became a place for cars — and as a pedestrian, it's your fault if you get hit."
One of the keys to this shift was the creation of the crime of jaywalking. Here's a history of how that happened.
This was also part of the final strategy: shame. In getting pedestrians to follow traffic laws, "the ridicule of their fellow citizens is far more effective than any other means which might be adopted," said E.B. Lefferts, the head of the Automobile Club of Southern California in the 1920s. Norton likens the resulting campaign to the anti-drug messaging of the '80s and '90s, in which drug use was portrayed as not only dangerous but stupid.
Saturday 9 May 2020
Thoughts on Markets
Tussle between Bulls and Bears
- US: $5 trillion stimulus package announced. Roughly, 25% of GDP.
- UK: GBP 500 billion stimulus package announced. Roughly, 25% of GDP.
- Eurozone: Euro 3.2 trillion stimulus package announced. Roughly, 24% of GDP.
- US: Yen 108 trillion stimulus package announced. Roughly, 20% of GDP.