Stock Update: Supreme Industries

BEAR CASE

• RERA to impact housing demand adversely. Negative impact on pipes segment.
• Competition is strengthening in pipes with Astral, Ashirvad & Finolex. Supreme has lost market share from 35% in 2009 to 26% in 2017.
• Competition is moving across the value chain and product range. e.g. Astral is moving into agri pipes and Finolex is moving into plumbing pipes.
• No major breakthrough product from the company in the recent past that can boost sales majorly. Composite cylinders still in initial stages.

BULL CASE

• Overall price cap on crude and buildup of new Polymer plant capacities in USA, China and Middle East will keep a lid on high Polymer prices.
• Govt focus on 1) Affordable housing, 2) Formalization of economy through adoption of GST, 3) Doubling of farmer's income by 2022, 4) Swacch Bharat Abhiyan, 5) 100 smart cities
• The distributors strength has gone up to 2973 by the end of March 2017 compared to 2699 by March 2016.
• Market leader in plastic piping systems with 7230 SKUs
• New Kharagpur plant for PVC,CPVC & HDPE pipes to commence from Nov'17. New Roto moulding plant at Kharagpur to commence from Aug'17
• The co has launched Overhead Water Tanks in various capacities from 500 liters to 5000 liters. Also launched Septic tanks in collaboration with a South African company
• Co manufactured solvent cement – SILBOND was approved by NSF-14 in both the varieties i.e., PVC and CPVC. The PVC variety also was certified by BIS and hence the products are going in the market with necessary ISI and NSF marking. The Company has further introduced BLUE SEALANT suitable for metal threaded joints. As a result Company now got all the products available in the segment of adhesives, solvents & lubricants required for various Piping Systems.
• Informal sector comprises of 40% of plastic furniture segment and with GST that share is expected to reduce over time
• Co has started exporting to USA and has found good acceptance for some of its products
• Co is making car interior parts for Honda and Maruti Suzuki and is continuously acquiring new business from existing customers
• Co has started a new product range using foam for children's education, toys, sports, health sector and interior decoration
• Composite cylinder order for 2.5 lakhs pcs from Bangladesh. BIS certification received and HPCL is expected to start trial runs.
• Capex planned at 300-350 cr in FY17-18