Look back in time on what messed up the NBFC space in 2008
How the biosimilar ecosystem is shaping up in India
Robots as nurse!
Flipkart now planning to sell insurance
Ambani vs Ambani
We will need more Lithium
Friday, 24 November 2017
Tuesday, 21 November 2017
Weekend Reading: Some Interesting Stuff
How the future of labour is not doomed by automation and thoughtful policies can make a better tomorrow for jobs
How Kaspersky antivirus software was used by Russian spies
Relying on averages is misleading for non-homogenous data sets
Why money to PSU banks should not be given with a rider
In Japan, you can pay an actor to impersonate your relative, spouse, coworker, or any kind of acquaintance.
How the insolvency and bankruptcy process is a once in a lifetime event
Wednesday, 15 November 2017
A Few Lessons From Sherlock Holmes - Peter Bevelin
Since I read Peter Bevelin's Seeking Wisdom, I have wanted to read his other books. So, I managed to get through his "A Few Lessons From Sherlock Holmes" recently. To be honest, I was a bit disappointed. The book seemed, to me, to be a collection of quotes from Sherlock Holmes books collated thematically. Though Seeking Wisdom was also on similar lines, that is, someone who had read all of Munger's writings and speeches would actually find it very repetitive, it had a structure to it. Also, Seeking Wisdom can be read without knowing anything about Munger, which is not really the case in this instance.
I had highlighted some quotes from the book. I am putting them here. Hope this is beneficial for those who have not read the book to get an idea of what it is about.
What distinguishes Holmes from most mortals is that he knows where to look and what questions to ask. He pays attention to the important things and he knows where to find them.
To know what to do and not do, we first need some genuine understanding on how reality is - how things and people are and what works and not
Considering many ideas over a wide range of disciplines give us perspective and help us consider the big picture or many aspects of an issue
But only what is useful - it can be dangerous to know too much
He said that he would acquire no knowledge which did not bear upon his object. Therefore all the knowledge which he possessed was such as would be useful to him.
It is useful to know something about human nature and what motivates people
Ask: What is in their interest to do?
But knowledge doesn’t automatically make us wise - the most learned are not the wisest
What is the problem? What do we ultimately want to achieve or avoid? That is the problem which we have to solve.
“The greatest sign of an ill-regulated mind is to believe things because you wish them to be so.” (Louis Pasteur)
Never jump to conclusions and try to collect facts as open-minded as possible
“Men see a little, presume a good deal, and so jump to the conclusion.”
It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.
Don’t be too quick Let us know a little more before we act.
And don’t blindly collect endless amounts of facts
One forms provisional theories and waits for time or fuller knowledge to explore them.
Data! Data! Data!...I can’t make bricks without clay.
Make sure “facts” are facts - Is it really so? Is this really true? Did this really happen?
We must look for consistency. Where there is a want of it we must suspect deception.
Don’t miss the forest for the trees - It is not the amount of information that counts but the relevant one.
Separate the relevant and important facts from the unimportant or accidental
The first thing was to look at the facts and separate what was certain from what was conjecture.
It is of the highest importance in the art of detection to be able to recognize out of a number of facts which are incidental and which are vital. Otherwise your energy and attention must be dissipated instead of being concentrated.
There may be many theories that fit the facts
Sometimes it helps to shift perspective
Never trust to general impressions, my boy, but concentrate yourself upon details.
What have we overlooked?
Sometimes we overlook that which is most obvious
In searching for the obscure, do not overlook the obvious.
Use the simplest means first
Sometimes things are not as simple as they seem. But sometimes they are not as complex as they seem, either
But don’t try to over-simplify complex matters - especially when we deal with systems with complicated interactions
What normally happens in similar situations? Why should this be any different?
Analogies - What does this case resemble? What is the same between this situation and others?
Negative evidence and events that don’t happen, matter when something implies they should be present or happen
What doesn’t matter? What can’t happen? What can’t it be? What can’t be done?
Test Our Theory- if it disagrees with the facts it is wrong
Facts don’t lie but we may have interpreted or stated them wrong and therefore drawn the wrong conclusion
Patience - Take time to think things over
And avoid distractions and concentrate on the problem
Put yourself in the other person’s shoes
Get a different view - talk it over with someone else
Don’t make the world fit your tools and use the right tool for the job
Watch out for overconfidence
Update our beliefs in light of new information
Criticize ourselves - Have we tried to find evidence against what we believe? Why might we be wrong? What have we overlooked? What (new) information or evidence is needed to make us change our mind?
When we get better understanding or the facts or evidence don’t agree with the theory we must change the theory and change course
Learn from your mistakes - and learn the general lessons
To learn we must face the mistakes and try to find out why we made them. Then comes our gain.
Know our limitations
Don’t think about how to get things done, instead ask whether they’re worth doing in the first place
Avoid danger - we shouldn’t expect to survive when we enter tough seas
We shouldn’t disregard even a small probability
The future is hard to predict
I had highlighted some quotes from the book. I am putting them here. Hope this is beneficial for those who have not read the book to get an idea of what it is about.
What distinguishes Holmes from most mortals is that he knows where to look and what questions to ask. He pays attention to the important things and he knows where to find them.
To know what to do and not do, we first need some genuine understanding on how reality is - how things and people are and what works and not
Considering many ideas over a wide range of disciplines give us perspective and help us consider the big picture or many aspects of an issue
But only what is useful - it can be dangerous to know too much
He said that he would acquire no knowledge which did not bear upon his object. Therefore all the knowledge which he possessed was such as would be useful to him.
It is useful to know something about human nature and what motivates people
Ask: What is in their interest to do?
But knowledge doesn’t automatically make us wise - the most learned are not the wisest
What is the problem? What do we ultimately want to achieve or avoid? That is the problem which we have to solve.
“The greatest sign of an ill-regulated mind is to believe things because you wish them to be so.” (Louis Pasteur)
Never jump to conclusions and try to collect facts as open-minded as possible
“Men see a little, presume a good deal, and so jump to the conclusion.”
It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.
Don’t be too quick Let us know a little more before we act.
And don’t blindly collect endless amounts of facts
One forms provisional theories and waits for time or fuller knowledge to explore them.
Data! Data! Data!...I can’t make bricks without clay.
Make sure “facts” are facts - Is it really so? Is this really true? Did this really happen?
We must look for consistency. Where there is a want of it we must suspect deception.
Don’t miss the forest for the trees - It is not the amount of information that counts but the relevant one.
Separate the relevant and important facts from the unimportant or accidental
The first thing was to look at the facts and separate what was certain from what was conjecture.
It is of the highest importance in the art of detection to be able to recognize out of a number of facts which are incidental and which are vital. Otherwise your energy and attention must be dissipated instead of being concentrated.
There may be many theories that fit the facts
Sometimes it helps to shift perspective
Never trust to general impressions, my boy, but concentrate yourself upon details.
What have we overlooked?
Sometimes we overlook that which is most obvious
In searching for the obscure, do not overlook the obvious.
Use the simplest means first
Sometimes things are not as simple as they seem. But sometimes they are not as complex as they seem, either
But don’t try to over-simplify complex matters - especially when we deal with systems with complicated interactions
What normally happens in similar situations? Why should this be any different?
Analogies - What does this case resemble? What is the same between this situation and others?
Negative evidence and events that don’t happen, matter when something implies they should be present or happen
What doesn’t matter? What can’t happen? What can’t it be? What can’t be done?
Test Our Theory- if it disagrees with the facts it is wrong
Facts don’t lie but we may have interpreted or stated them wrong and therefore drawn the wrong conclusion
Patience - Take time to think things over
And avoid distractions and concentrate on the problem
Put yourself in the other person’s shoes
Get a different view - talk it over with someone else
Don’t make the world fit your tools and use the right tool for the job
Watch out for overconfidence
Update our beliefs in light of new information
Criticize ourselves - Have we tried to find evidence against what we believe? Why might we be wrong? What have we overlooked? What (new) information or evidence is needed to make us change our mind?
When we get better understanding or the facts or evidence don’t agree with the theory we must change the theory and change course
Learn from your mistakes - and learn the general lessons
To learn we must face the mistakes and try to find out why we made them. Then comes our gain.
Know our limitations
Don’t think about how to get things done, instead ask whether they’re worth doing in the first place
Avoid danger - we shouldn’t expect to survive when we enter tough seas
We shouldn’t disregard even a small probability
The future is hard to predict
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