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Wednesday 14 April 2021

Launching Quantamental Q10

As promised during the annual review, I am launching the Q10 Quant strategy.

The details are available in the deck 

To summarise:
  • Q10 now offers a lower minimum investment requirement at a lower subscription fee.
  • Q10 invests mostly in large and mid-caps with somewhat lower returns and somewhat lower drawdowns compared to Q30 over a market cycle. It is also likely to be more volatile.
  • As of now Q10 is going to be offered only on the smallcase platform for new subscribers and may be added to Intelsense direct option in future.
  • https://intelsense.smallcase.com/smallcase/INSMO_0004
  • It is available for free for all existing Q30 subscribers who have subscribed directly on intelsense.in.


Quantamental Q10 - Introduction by abhishekbasumallick on Scribd

Monday 12 April 2021

Using Technofunda Strategy for Investing

Technofunda investing is a combination of technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Practitioners of technofunda investing usually approach it in one of the two ways - i) look for strong fundamental stocks and then look for good technical patterns or ii) look for chart patterns and then study the fundamentals of the stock.

Nearly all fundamental investors are averse to using technical analysis and vice versa. Personally, I treat both forms of analysis as information streams. And the more the merrier. If I can use the fundamental information about a company's business and combine that with what is happening in the demand-supply of the stock, then the results are superior to using either one approach exclusively.

So, why don't more people do that? Firstly, the time frame is different. Fundamentalists usually are looking at a longer time horizon of a year or more whereas technicians typically look at holding for a few days or weeks. Very few technicians have a longer time horizon. Resolving this time horizon mismatch is something that has to be done first.

Secondly, there is a lack of knowledge and trust in the "other" discipline. Fundamentalists view charts as squiggly lines. And technicians view fundamentals as superfluous newsflow. It is at the core of their respective studies. The way I resolve it for myself is by telling myself that fundamentals cause the stock to perform over time and technicals cause the demand and supply conditions for the stock price movement. Both of these factors need to align for a long sustained rally in a stock. 

I add a layer on top of technofunda which helps with holding performing stocks for longer periods. This approach is known as trend following. Trend following is usually associated with following the price. Although I use that to an extent, I tend to focus more on the fundamental trend following. This is a simple concept of continuing to hold stocks where the results are continuously good and are in an uptrend. Some of the biggest winners in the stock market come from these stocks. In fact, nearly all of the long term well-performing stocks fall in this category. I call them compounders. Because they tend to compound capital superbly well. If you make a basket of stocks filled with such stocks, the only active decision to make is when to sell. You do that when the fundamental or technical trend breaks down.

This has been one of the best ways I have found to get good returns while being invested in good quality companies.

Sunday 11 April 2021

Quantamental Q30 Hits a Century

Q30 Quant Model Portfolio crossed a major milestone earlier this week. It crossed 100% returns on the starting capital as at 1st March 20. The total absolute returns as on date is now 105% since inception on 1st March 20. Please note

  • These are model portfolio returns on starting capital of 100 as on 1st March 20, with no capital added thereafter.
  • For standard comparison with other portfolios, it does not include brokerage, slippages or dividends received from stocks or liquid bees.
  • The returns in your portfolio is a function of when you started, when you added or withdrew capital, whether you have been exactly cloning the model portfolio and a minor impact on account of brokerages/slippages which is also partly offset by dividends. 
  • The drawdowns throughput this entire period has been under 8%. Which is simply incredible and a reflection of the year it has been. As we move forward, across market cycles we would obviously see much higher drawdowns. The trick is to stick with the process across market cycles and not try and outsmart it. Anyway we can always take such calls in discretionary investing. When it comes to quant, follow the system. The system is the edge!

For further details and subscribing to Q30, visit https://www.intelsense.in or http://intelsense.smallcase.com









Thursday 8 April 2021

Weekend Reading


Reading across disciplines is one of the best ways to improve our investment acumen. Here is a summary of some of the best articles I read this week. If you like this collection, consider forwarding it to someone who you think will appreciate it.

A fascinating account of the first Big Bull of India
Premchand Roychand was one of the most influential businessmen in 19th-century Bombay. A man who made a fortune in the stockbroking business and came to be known as the Cotton King, the Bullion King or just the Big Bull. He was also the founder of the Native Share and Stock Brokers Association, an institution that is now known as the BSE. 
Premchand began his “successful career as a broker under the shade of a stately, spreading banyan tree at the western end of the beautiful Horniman Circle garden in South Bombay where wayfarers, cotton and opium brokers, clerks and strangers came to quench their thirst". Around 22 such brokers began trading under the banyan tree and formed the Native Share and Stock Brokers Association, each contributing Re1.
“Of all the ‘Share Kings’, the most fabled figure was Premchand… whose exploits would help create another stereotype: he would be the first of many famous Bombayites who believed that profit held primacy over principle. The ingenious merchant was a promoter and shareholder in the Commercial Bank and Mercantile Bank, and associated with about seventy mushroom companies. He also took control of the Bank of Bombay. He had a sharp eye for the loophole and regulatory grey area."

Great thinkers aren't afraid to be wrong
High-ability individuals tend to underrate their relative competence, and at the same time assume that tasks that are easy for them are just as easy for other people. The smarter you are, the less you think you know -- because you realize just how much there is to actually know.
Because wisdom isn't found in certainty. Wisdom is knowing that while you might know a lot, there's also a lot you don't know.
Wisdom is trying to find out what is right rather than trying to be right.
Wisdom is realizing when you're wrong, and backing down graciously.
Great thinkers aren't afraid to be wrong. Great thinkers aren't afraid to admit they don't have all the answers. Great thinkers aren't afraid to say "I think" instead of "I know."

Doctors move to a subscription model
Helping someone become healthier doesn’t always require a billable treatment. Sometimes, it just requires expert planning and recommendations.
That’s why doctors increasingly want to practice a different kind of care, known as value-based care. The idea of value-based care is that patients or payers pay doctors to make patients healthy rather than treating them for individual ailments. This often means charging a monthly or annual flat fee in exchange for comprehensive care. Essentially, doctors use those dollars to care for a patient however they see fit. In some models of VBC, doctors can suffer penalties when patients don’t get better. 

Will the future car come from an auto or an electronics manufacturer?
The stakes in manufacturing vehicles are higher than what technology companies are accustomed to. “The automobile is very different from a lot of electronics gear,” said MacDuffie.  “It’s a heavy, fast-moving object that operates in public space and is dangerous. It can kill people. It can injure people. It can damage property.”
In that setting, the automotive industry clearly faces complexities and responsibilities with which technology companies are not familiar. 
“We’ve heard Elon Musk talking many times about ‘manufacturing hell’ and saying there’s nothing harder than mass-producing at scale.” In a recent interview with auto manufacturing expert Sandy Munro, Musk said: “Prototypes are easy and fun, and then reaching volume production with a reliable product at an affordable price is excruciatingly difficult. Our production is hell.”
Even as some tech companies have ambitions of becoming automakers, not all of them are prepared to put in “all the hard work” that Tesla has invested in that endeavor, MacDuffie said. If the tech firms don’t take similar steps, they will be forced to work with existing automakers that bring that expertise.

Things to remember in a crazy market
FOMO brings about a lot of emotions — greed, envy, regret — that make it difficult to make level-headed decisions with your money.
You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t have these feelings right now.
Investing in risk assets means occasionally seeing your gains evaporate before your eyes. I don’t know why and I don’t know when but at some point a large portion of my portfolio will fall in value. That’s how this works. 
The current cycle won’t last forever just like the last one or the next one.
Being contrarian will always make you feel like you’re smarter than everyone else, but the crowd is right more often than it’s wrong when it comes to the markets.
No one is able to consistently get in at the bottoms and out at the tops. Hindsight makes it look easy but it never is in the moment. 


For building a solid long term portfolio, look at subscribing to www.intelsense.in long term advisory.
For technofunda investing and positional trading, subscribe to our Hitpicks advisory service on www.intelsense.in
For momentum trend following systematic trading, subscribe to Quantamental at www.quantamental.in 

Tuesday 6 April 2021

Thursday 1 April 2021

Weekend Reading

 


Reading across disciplines is one of the best ways to improve our investment acumen. Here is a summary of some of the best articles I read this week. If you like this collection, consider forwarding it to someone who you think will appreciate it.

1. The new kid on the audio block - Clubhouse
Clubhouse, as you have no doubt heard, is an invitation-only audio social network that has drawn millions of people eager to socialize and listen in on an endless stream of conversations, as if all the text on Twitter, Facebook, and Interview magazine had acquired vocal cords. 

Thought leaders, politicians, and A-list celebrities have headlined countless Clubhouse rooms. More prosaic sessions include scammy get-rich-quick pitches and endless hand-wringing about current events. Some of the discussions have become notorious, with charges of racism, anti-Semitism, misogyny, and disinformation. All of which has generated yet more curiosity about the app.

Clubhouse arrived at a perfect moment. It delivered spontaneous conversations and chance meetings to people stuck at home. For those weary of tidying and curating backgrounds for Zoom, its audio-only format is a virtue. Even being iPhone-only and invitation-only hasn’t held back its popularity. New users often become obsessed with it, spending 20, 30, even 40 hours a week on the app. Discussions are popping up in German, Greek, and Burmese. In early February, the app even earned the badge of respect accorded to free speech-ish platforms such as Google, Facebook, and Twitter: It’s been banned in China.

2. China tries to boycott US brands
Western brands are suddenly feeling the wrath of the Chinese consumer, the very shoppers who for years have clamoured for their products and paid them vast amounts of money. Egged on by the ruling Communist Party, Chinese online activists are punishing foreign companies that have joined a call to avoid using cotton produced in the Chinese region of Xinjiang, where the authorities are waging a broad campaign of repression against ethnic minorities.

It isn’t clear what the long-term impact might be on Western companies that depend on China to make or buy their products. On Thursday, there was still a steady stream of shoppers at several popular H&M and Nike outlets in Shanghai and Beijing. Previous state media-driven pressure campaigns against companies like Apple, Starbucks and Volkswagen failed to dent Chinese demand for their products.

3. There is no correlation between earnings and stock price returns
Researchers have demonstrated that the relationship between economic growth and stock returns was weak, if not negative, almost everywhere. They studied developed and emerging markets across the entire 20th century and provide evidence that is difficult to refute.

Their results suggest that the connection so often made between economic developments and stock market movements by stock analysts, fund managers, and the financial media is largely erroneous.

From 1904 to 2020, earnings growth and stock returns moved in tandem over certain time periods, however, there were decades when they completely diverged, as highlighted by a low correlation of 0.2.

The perspective does not change if we switch the rolling return calculation window to one or 10 years, or if we use real rather than nominal stock market prices and earnings. The correlation between US stock market returns and earnings growth was essentially zero over the last century.

4. The fonts used in luxury watches are not fit for purpose
In reality, only a small and decreasing number of watchmakers go to the trouble of creating custom lettering for their dials. More often, watch brands use off-the-rack fonts that are squished and squeezed onto the dial's limited real estate. Patek Philippe, for example, has used ITC American Typewriter and Arial on its high-end watches. Rolex uses a slightly modified version of Garamond for its logo. And Audemars Piguet has replaced the custom lettering on its watches with a stretched version of Times Roman.

That watchmakers use typefaces originally created for word processing, signage, and newspapers highlights a central paradox of watch design: These tiny machines hide their most elegant solutions under layers of complexity, while one of the most visible components – typography – is often an afterthought.
Even subtle tweaks to a typeface can elevate a watch, but the brands who fully invest in custom lettering view it as a distinguishing factor in their timepiece's design. 

5. Bitcoin consumes more electricity than Argentina
"Mining" for the cryptocurrency is power-hungry, involving heavy computer calculations to verify transactions.
Cambridge researchers say it consumes around 121.36 terawatt-hours (TWh) a year - and is unlikely to fall unless the value of the currency slumps.

The online tool has ranked Bitcoin’s electricity consumption above Argentina (121 TWh), the Netherlands (108.8 TWh) and the United Arab Emirates (113.20 TWh) - and it is gradually creeping up on Norway (122.20 TWh).
The energy it uses could power all kettles used in the UK for 27 years, it said.


For building a solid long term portfolio, look at subscribing to www.intelsense.in long term advisory.
For technofunda investing and positional trading, subscribe to our Hitpicks advisory service on www.intelsense.in
For momentum trend following systematic trading, subscribe to Quantamental at www.quantamental.in 

Tuesday 30 March 2021

Book Notes - Momentum Masters

This is a great book for traders and investors alike. @hitesh2710 suggested I read the book sometime back. Unlike a lot of other books, this one is packed with practical advice from successful practitioners. Because it is written in a Q&A style, it is very easy to read and brings together the answers of all the 4 participants together so that you can understand the similarities and differences in their individual approaches.

Below are my notes & highlights from the book. They are a bit exhaustive and hence a bit lengthy.


  • The first thing I do is look at earnings released and news items that may affect my holdings, and I also look at premarket futures to get an idea of how the market will open. I then review all my current holdings and update my stops and set alerts; I set audio alerts on my buy candidates at price levels near my target purchase price and also at levels near my sell stops.
  • Everything I do is thought out; I don’t like surprises, so I try to work out as much as possible in advance so I don’t get blindsided and caught off guard. I do this work outside of market hours to remove emotion.
  • I usually don’t do much in the first 45 minutes of trading because there are many false moves and reactions to overnight news.
  • I know what and where I’m going to buy before the market opens, so there are no surprises, and I just act without thinking. I start in the morning by checking all my open positions. 
  • Everything I need to know is based on the stock’s price behavior and volume; the rest is pure noise.
  • If a market is going to move, then big funds and institutions are going to drive it. The bigger players have to buy and sell often during days or even weeks. Individual traders have a significant advantage over the big traders, because individual traders can move in and out of positions much faster. So they can change direction very quickly when market conditions change, and to me, that’s a tremendous edge.
  • The big money is made in the longer-term moves.
  • Bottom line, if you hone your timing and talent to spot the setups and if you have the fortitude to stick to the rules, it doesn’t matter if you start out small; you have a true edge that few traders possess, especially if you do your homework every night and on weekends.
  • You shouldn’t be afraid of thinly traded stocks; you should embrace them. Some of the biggest winners are small companies that you’ve never heard of before. But you have to be careful and only trade a position size you can get out of safely. A small position is better than no position, especially if the stock has the potential to skyrocket.
  • All the biggest-moving stocks I’ve owned during the past 20 years, where I’ve made 95% of my money, were ones hitting new highs from very solid bases.
  • The best time to buy the large-cap names is coming out of a bear market or a deep correction. With small caps, I tend to trade them close to new highs because they’re less efficiently priced, so I don’t have to “beat the crowd” and try to buy lower.
  • By definition, if a stock is covered by many analysts and watched by thousands of traders, then it has a far less probability of being inefficiently priced and thus yielding a quick alpha move. It doesn’t mean the stocks shouldn’t be traded or purchased at certain times; but in general, if you’re looking for alpha, you should be discounting the larger capitalization.
  • It is rare when you have a market where you can have both longs and shorts. In a market that is trending in one direction, that’s the side you should be leaning toward. Markets moving sideways can be very tough to trade both ways.
  • Even though my intuitive feel is pretty good, I have learned not to trust my opinion, because it will eventually be wrong. If you have a strong conviction on a trade, it will be difficult to trust the market and divorce your idea.
  • I will only add to positions that are moving higher and performing well. Positions only become bigger with appreciation and follow on purchases after new bases are formed.
  • The overall market must be showing strength with higher highs and a significant portion of those market stocks marching into new highs as well. Many strong bases on the charts, as well as strong expanding earnings on a high number of those stocks, are critical indicators of the overall health of the market and ultimately my portfolio.
  • The only way to consistently outperform is to be concentrated in the names that are outperforming.
  • There should be a period of a week or more of very quiet and very tight price action before a stock makes a move. 
  • Many of the best trades occur when you have fundamentals, technicals, and a bullish general market all in your favor. So I try to focus on companies that have solid fundamental and technical characteristics during a healthy market environment. However, life is not perfect. Stocks that set up well technically, in a manner I refer to as “unexplained strength,” are often good riskreward plays because they are less obvious and not as likely to be “crowded.”
  • So, yes, I will trade stocks with a lack of apparent fundamentals when the chart is really strong. Most of the time when I ignore surface fundamentals, the stock is in a very high-momentum situation, and the chart is saying that something really big is definitely going on.
  • I define an uptrend as a stock with its 50-day moving average above its 200-day moving average and both are trending higher. Even stronger uptrends can be defined as the 20-day moving average above the 50-day, and the 50-day is above the 200-day moving average. 
  • The most important indicator is the overall market trending up with higher highs and higher lows, and the same goes for the stocks that I look to buy. Next would be a well-defined base and then the strength of the group.
  • A breakout is a stock emerging out of a base or sideways consolidation. I like a base to be at least four weeks or longer. As the stock breaks out, the volume should be larger than average. The volume should increase at least 25% or more. The best moves start with very big increases in volume of 100% or more.
  • You want a stock to rise on higher volume and pull back on lower volume because the buying and selling by institutions is what moves stocks in the market, and the institutions can’t hide the fact that they have to buy in size. The most important area to concentrate on is what volume is doing at key points like breakouts to new highs, breakdowns from bases, and even when a stock undercuts a previous low.
  • I want both the fundamentals and the technical characteristics of the stock to be in an uptrend. I have much more confidence in holding a stock that has good fundamentals than if I’m buying based solely on a good chart. There are so many stocks to choose from, why not go with the one that has the best characteristics.
  • I am usually more successful if I spend a number of hours researching the fundamentals, listening to conference calls, investigating the company’s website to really get to know where the company has been and its future plans.
  • You want to watch the general market but not to the point that you sell all your stocks when your indicators flash a downtrend.
  • I think most traders would do much better if they completely ignored the “market” or the major indexes and just focused on the stocks themselves.
  • Stock trading is about anticipating coming movements and then waiting to be proved right or wrong. Even if I turn bearish on the market while I’m holding longs, I will usually let the stocks stop me out. I don’t usually sell everything on my “opinion” of the market. I simply tighten my stops and let the price action take me out of the positions one by one. Very often a handful of my stocks will hold their stops, and I’ll even get through a market pullback still holding names I had before the correction began.
  • If things are working, I get more aggressive. When my stock trades are not working well, I cut back my exposure and the number of commitments. This is a very simple method but very effective. If you scale up when trades are working and scale back when things are not working well, you ensure that you will be trading your largest when trading your best and trading your smallest when trading your worst.
  • In a year, you really only need one or two really good stocks to have great performance, but you must handle them right. You must add to a stock after it has built a new base following its first move up. You can add to it again on subsequent bases. On a longer move, you can build the size of the position into 20–25% of your portfolio. A position of that size should only be achieved through price appreciation and by adding more on subsequent bases.
  • The problem about setting price targets is that the best stocks usually end up going a lot further than anyone expects.
  • I don’t usually make all-or-nothing decisions, especially on winning positions, but instead I scale in and out of them. If something has had a big move and is extended and looks like it is starting to pull back, I might sell a portion of the position, but I never want to lose a position in a stock that looks like a leader. Once you sell out the entire position, sometimes you can miss the next move higher.
  • During the beginning stages of a new bull market is the best time to hold, and in the late stages of a bull market—usually after several years—is the best time to trade shorter-term
  • During the beginning stages of a new bull market is the best time to hold, and in the late stages of a bull market—usually after several years—is the best time to trade shorter-term moves and sell into strength.
  • I also had to learn to practice patience. The fear of missing out is a strong emotion when trading. It is the root of many trading failures. I have two main rules: (1) no forced trades. (2) no big losses. You must develop “sit-out power,” the ability to wait for correct setups and not force action and take subpar trades.
  • Minervini: 
    1. Think risk first. Always trade with a stop loss and know where you’re getting out before you get in. 
    2. Keep losses small and protect your breakeven point once you attain a decent profit. 
    3. Never risk more than you expect to gain. 
    4. Never average down. 
    5. Know the truth about your trading—study your results regularly.
  • Ryan: 
    1. Cut your losses and keep them small. 
    2. Be extremely disciplined. 
    3. Trade smaller if you have a number of losses in a row. 
    4. Never let a good gain turn into a loss. 
    5. Move money from your losers to your winners.
  • Zanger:
    1. Never let a stock get below what you paid for it. 
    2. Never chase a stock that is up more than 3–5% above its pivot or breakout area. 
    3. Avoid options. 
    4. Reduce position size after a good move up. 
    5. Hang on to those winners and let go of the laggards.
  • Ritchie II: 
    1. Always trade with a plan, specifically one that evaluates risk in every possible way for an individual position as well as your entire portfolio. 
    2. Always reduce trading size after a big loss or losing period. 
    3. Shift capital to ideas and strategies that are working and reduce it from ones that aren’t. 
    4. Guard your emotions with equal value to the way you guard your capital. 
    5. Bring your “A” game every day.