With
the calendar year coming to an end, it is time to take stock and look back at
the year and the developments in the portfolio.
For
the majority part of the year, I was bearish on the Indian economy. Even today,
I am not convinced that the country is in very good financial health. The
recent rally is more based on hope than substance. This rally has been fuelled
by the hope of a stable pro-reform BJP government at the centre in 2014. Purely
on fundamentals, there is no improvement on the ground. Inflation continues to
be high, specially food inflation. It is unlikely to come down any time in the
near future as long as the supply side structural issues are not addressed. The
Current Account Deficit, thankfully has come down with the prices and
consumption of gold falling during the year. Rupee scared everyone (atleast the
importers and of course cheered the exporters) by shying away from the Rs 68
mark and settling for some time around 60, up from the 45-50 range established
for a fair number of years.
I made some
changes to my portfolio. I booked profits on some of the stocks where I had
made good profits and where the business climate was looking sluggish for the
next few years like Balaji Amines, Titan, GRP, Shriram Transport Finance, Cravatex
and JK Lakshmi Cement. I booked losses in CEBBCO (lost 70% of my investment on
this), Sintex and Thangamayil Jewellery.
During the
year, I added some stocks, which are either more export focused and thus likely
to gain by the strength in the dollar or simply who businesses are faring well
in this recessionary environment. Shilpa Medicare, Poly Medicure, Alembic
Pharma, Ajanta Pharma and Finolex Cables. I
have added to my initial positions in PI industries and Kaveri Seeds over the
year in small quantities. I have reduced my positions in Cera as I think the
price has run much ahead of fundamentals. I have added Page Ind to
my portfolio as a dipstick investment more from a tracking perspective. I am
still not decided on the valuation comfort in the stock. I have not made any
changes to my top 3 holdings.
Over the
year, my portfolio has returned 25.14% versus 8.27% of the Sensex and 3.3% of the
HDFC Equity fund. I have chosen the HDFC Equity fund as it is one of the
largest and best-managed equity fund over a 15 year period. The point is, if I
am not beating a decent mutual fund, then I would rather put my money there and
go sit on a beach ;-)
Name of Company
|
% of Portfolio (Dec'12)
|
% of Portfolio (Dec'13)
|
Comments
|
Mayur Uniquoters
|
19.08%
|
19.79%
|
Hold / Buy on dips
|
Supreme Ind
|
16.37%
|
16.42%
|
Hold / Reduce
|
Astral Poly
|
8.02%
|
14.75%
|
Hold
|
Kaveri Seeds
|
2.02%
|
6.78%
|
Hold / Buy on dips
|
Amara Raja
|
5.06%
|
4.98%
|
Hold
|
Cera Sanitaryware
|
7.88%
|
4.72%
|
Hold / Reduce
|
Finolex Cables
|
0.00%
|
4.44%
|
Hold / Buy on dips
|
Yes Bank
|
6.03%
|
3.89%
|
Buy
|
Auto Auto
|
2.88%
|
3.85%
|
Hold
|
PI Industries
|
0.50%
|
3.77%
|
Accumulate
|
Balkrishna Industries
|
2.44%
|
2%
|
Hold / Reduce
|
Shilpa Medicare
|
0.00%
|
1.99%
|
Accumulate
|
Alembic Pharma
|
0.00%
|
1.97%
|
Hold
|
Ajanta Pharma
|
0.00%
|
1.88%
|
Hold
|
Poly Medicure
|
0.00%
|
1.75%
|
Accumulate
|
Page Industries
|
0.00%
|
0.66%
|
|
Cash
|
0.31%
|
6.35%
|
|
Balaji Amines
|
3.51%
|
0%
|
|
CEBBCO
|
2.20%
|
0%
|
Analyze mistake
|
Cravatex
|
0.84%
|
0%
|
|
Gujarat Reclaim
|
2.56%
|
0%
|
Wait for turnaround
|
JK Lakshmi Cement
|
3.51%
|
0%
|
Keep watch; Buying time may be soon
|
Shriram Transport Finance
|
8.22%
|
0%
|
Keep watch; Buying time may be soon
|
Sintex India
|
3.00%
|
0%
|
Keep watch; Buying time may be soon
|
Thangamayil Jewellery
|
1.22%
|
0%
|
Analyze mistake
|
Titan Industries
|
4.32%
|
0%
|
Keep watch
|